Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
North Carolina's 2nd District margin of victory
The odds
50.2median
2555
Median 50.2Middle half 46.0 – 51.3
How the odds have moved
Median: 41.4 on Oct 19, 50.2 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ross, 28+ pts | 99% | 61¢ | $1.01 | 131 | ||
| Ross, 31+ pts | 99% | 66¢ | 99¢ | 133 | ||
| Ross, 34+ pts | 99% | 62¢ | 100¢ | 51.00 | ||
| Ross, 37+ pts | 99% | 63¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 60.00 | |
| Ross, 40+ pts | 99% | 67¢ | 100¢ | 481 | ||
| Ross, 43+ pts | 99% | 61¢ | 99¢ | 470 | ||
| Ross, 46+ pts | 75% | 75¢ | 99¢ | 563 | ||
| Ross, 49+ pts | 75% | $1.34 | 470 | |||
| Ross, 52+ pts | 11% | 27¢ | $3.70 | 42.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: North Carolina
Search ›- How Hurricane Helene may have influenced North Carolina’s blue shiftLast spring, Lynne Russo, a communications consultant from Hendersonville, who had never worked in politics before, toured her district, hard hit by Helene, and spent three months talking to residents about what was making their lives so…
- Uninvited gator waddles into North Carolina bagel shopSecurity cameras captured an alligator wandering through the back door of Bagel Dock Express in Southport, North Carolina, last week. The gator made its way through the kitchen and into the main shop, startling the owner. Uninvited gator…
- What the blue wave looked like in North CarolinaDemocrats have flipped five Republican-held congressional seats in North Carolina. The surprising results were just one part of the blue wave in a swing state that President Trump won three times. COLIN CAMPBELL, BYLINE: Hey, Mary Louise…
- What comes after the blue wave in North Carolina?A blue tsunami crashed into battleground and deep red Republican territory alike last Tuesday night, a clear response to an economy that many feel frustrated by and a strong rebuke of the Trump administration. But what do all the…
- Democrat Who Said Trump Supporters Belong in Concentration Camps on Track to Win North Carolina House SeatNorth Carolina Democrat Shelly Headen, who posted a Facebook story with a caption that said Trump supporters belong in concentration camps while visiting Dachau, is on track to beat Republican incumbent Rep. John Blust by 233 votes pending…
- Republicans in North Carolina lose 4 more House seats as GOP wipeout spreadsThe Washington Post Democrats pulled off stunning upsets in districts that President Donald Trump carried in 2024.
- From Powerhouse to Punchline: The North Carolina G.O.P. ImplosionA sheriff known for his anti-immigration views lost to a pastor promising to rebuild trust with immigrants. A Black man was elected sheriff in a largely white, rural and conservative county. A candidate who previously lost two federal…
- Governor Stein Hosts Media Availability Focused on Delivering for North Carolina Families Following Record Voter Turnout in MidtermsFollowing record voter turnout in the 2026 midterm elections, Governor Josh Stein shared his focus on delivering for North Carolina families: “Voters across… Following record voter turnout in the 2026 midterm elections, Governor Josh Stein…
- How North Carolina Democrats flipped several House seats in historically GOP districtsSupporters watch Democratic senatorial candidate Roy Cooper speak during an election night event in Raleigh, N.C. on November 3, 2026. A.M STEWART/AFP via Getty Images hide caption Of those districts, four are flipping from Republican…
- Column: North Carolina spoke clearly in Blue TsunamiWe wrote repeatedly that the 2025 mid-term election was unusually quiet. We now know why. North Carolinians were seething mad at the way things were going and the avalanche of early vote demonstrated they couldn’t wait to voice their…
- Republican Control of North Carolina Senate Comes Down to One Tight Race Determined by Provisional BallotsThe margin is tightening in a nail-biter North Carolina Senate race that will decide whether that chamber succumbs to the Democratic blue wave that swept across the U.S. in Tuesday’s midterm elections. Democrats won enough state House…
- Republicans in North Carolina Lose 4 More House SeatsJust dropped · Trial Balloon · Ep. 194 “Several House Republicans from North Carolina are in danger of losing their seats and joining four GOP lawmakers who lost reelection in a once reliably red state that is now handing their party some…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions