Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
New York's 6th District margin of victory
The odds
29.6median
1037
Median 29.6Middle half 28.5 – 30.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 24.5 on Oct 19, 29.6 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Meng, 13+ pts | 99% | 9¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 456 | |
| Meng, 16+ pts | 98% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 523 | |
| Meng, 19+ pts | 85% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 25.00 | |
| Meng, 22+ pts | 85% | 5¢ | 100¢ | 115 | ||
| Meng, 25+ pts | 85% | 7¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 329 | |
| Meng, 28+ pts | 85% | 7¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 220 | |
| Meng, 31+ pts | 21% | 10¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 11.00 | |
| Meng, 34+ pts | 12% | 10¢ | $8.33 | 90.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New York
Search ›- One-party rule fails us all — now New York Republicans must rebuildThe future of the New York Republican Party began on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Amid a night of stunning GOP losses, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s 20-point win over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman leaves the state Republican Party with…
- Elise Stefanik: Republicans in New York stopped listening to voters — here’s how we rebuild the GOPAfter 12 years in Congress serving at the highest levels of our nation’s federal government, I want to take this opportunity to thank the people of our great state — Republicans, Independents, and Democrats. And thank you to the voters in…
- New York House District 18 Midterm Election 2026: Live ResultsThe New York House District 18 race has shifted 22.46 points toward Democrats compared with the 2024 presidential election. See the county-by-county breakdown below. Shift to Democrats Shift to ... Trump signed a proclamation today to…
- Republican Anthony Constantino holds on to New York seat in competitive House raceAlthough Constantino’s race did not seem competitive initially, Democrats saw an opportunity to flip it as the national environment shifted against Republicans. The seat is currently held by retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik (R), who ran for…
- Editorial | End the tariffs hurting New YorkNew York consumers need a break. Our city has always experienced high costs, but it has only grown more expensive to live and work here since President Trump began imposing tariffs last year. There is hope now that the economic tide may…
- Hochul Focuses On New York Legacy, Not Higher Office“On the surface, Gov. Kathy Hochul’s re-election victory in New York checked all of the relevant boxes,” the New York Times reports. “She crushed her Republican challenger, the Nassau County executive, Bruce Blakeman, by 20 points…
- Cereal Law Begins Immediately in January 2027 in New York StateCereal is not what it used to be and it is changing even more starting with a new law that will be enforced in January 2027. New York State families know that certain dyes in your food are not good for your kids. If they are anything like…
- Ambassador Leiter Accuses New York Times: 'Preparing the Next Genocide Against Us'Israel's Ambassador to the United States Yechiel Leiter attacked The New York Times in a speech at a Chabad emissaries conference in New Jersey, accusing its editors of laying the groundwork for another genocide against Jews. Leiter…
- Jeremy Cooney wins re-election in New York, secures 66.5% of voteIndian American state senator defeats Republican Orlando Rivera in New York’s 2026 midterm elections, extending his political career in Rochester. New York State Sen. Jeremy Cooney won re-election to the 56th Senate District in the…
- Zero Waste Foundation links New York climate talks to COP31 actionDuring Climate Week NYC and the UN General Assembly, Turkiye advanced a climate agenda centered on implementation. Zero Waste messages, COP31 diplomacy and the LDC-GIF mechanism connected resource efficiency, green industrialization and…
- New York City DSA, Darializia Avila Chevalier, CC ’16, celebrate Democratic wins on election nightBanners reading “Free Palestine,” “We will beat the billionaires,” “Babies not bombs,” and “Tax the rich” hung inside Harlem Tavern on Tuesday evening, where the New York City Democratic Socialists of America hosted an election nightwatch…
- First Palestinian American New York Lawmaker Celebrates with Palestinian Flag, No Stars and Stripes Anywhere [WATCH]New York’s first Palestinian American elected to the state legislature marked her victory with a Palestinian flag on social media. The American flag was nowhere to be found in her celebratory message. Aber Kawas, the socialist Democratic…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions