Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Texas's 28th District margin of victory
The odds
98%Cuellar, 14+ pts
-126
How the odds have moved
Cuellar, 2+ pts: 91% on Oct 20, 99% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETCuellar, 2+ pts: 93% → 99%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cuellar, 2+ pts | 99% | 99¢ | 3.8K | |||
| Cuellar, 5+ pts | 99% | 98¢ | 3.0K | |||
| Cuellar, 8+ pts | 99% | 98¢ | 3.0K | |||
| Cuellar, 11+ pts | 99% | 98¢ | 11.7K | |||
| Cuellar, 14+ pts | 98% | 96¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 10.2K | |
| Cuellar, 17+ pts | 98% | 1¢ | 99¢ | 1.4K | ||
| Cuellar, 20+ pts | 98% | 1¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.6K | |
| Cuellar, 23+ pts | 98% | $1.02 | 1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Texas
Search ›- The night Texas turned blue / Texas MonthlyCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. The night Texas turned…
- Texas state rep. calls for checks to limit governor-elect's emergency powersTexas State Representative Brian Harrison joins Stuart Varney to discuss legislative proposals aimed at limiting the emergency powers of the state's incoming Governor-elect Gina Hinojosa is and argues for restoring constitutional balance…
- Nathan Johnson discusses victory in race for Texas Attorney GeneralWBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am
- Elon Musk warns of ‘oppressive’ government as newly elected Texas governor blocks land buysTexas Democrats haven’t even taken office yet, and they’re already taking aim at the man who brought two of America’s biggest companies to the Lone Star State. Gov.-elect Gina Hinojosa, who defeated Republican Gov. Greg Abbott by 7 points…
- Latino voters help drive Democratic victories in Texas midtermsCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Latino voters help drive…
- Former DHS official warns Texas is sliding toward the 'sanctuary state club'Former DHS senior official Todd Bensman joins 'Fox & Friends Weekend' to discuss how Texas Democratic leaders could impact border security and law enforcement cooperation with ICE. Former DHS official warns Texas is sliding toward the…
- Texas Cities Pull Back Cooperation With ICE After Midterm ElectionsNov 07, 2026 at 04:41 PM EST Two cities in Texas are taking steps to restrict how local law enforcement interacts with U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) following the midterm elections, led by an executive order in Houston and…
- Blue wave in Texas has Democrats elated, Republicans dejected, lawmakers reflect on the electionWBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am
- Fall weather returns to North Texas with chilly mornings, mild afternoonsCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Fall weather returns to…
- How Latino voters powered the blue wave in TexasCBS News is a trusted source for the latest in politics, U.S. and world news. The network is home to award-winning broadcasts CBS Mornings, CBS Evening News, 60 Minutes, CBS Sunday Morning, 48 Hours and Face the Nation. Latino voters boost…
- The surprising and often forgotten history of economic populism in TexasNPR's Rob Schmitz speaks with Austin-based political commentator David Griscom. He authored a book titled The Myth of Red Texas which tells the story of economic populism in Texas. The surprising and often forgotten history of economic…
- Goodwin aims to boost school funding, healthcare when she becomes Texas' first female Lt. Gov.WBZ This Morning 8am CBS News Chicago Sunday7am CBS Colorado Mornings Weekend WCCO News Sunday Morning 7am CBS News New York Sunday 8am
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions