Alabama's 1st District margin of victory
49%Carl, 24+ pts
2160
Install
Washington's 3rd District margin of victory
The odds
10.6median
-222
Median 10.6Middle half 8.38 – 13.4
How the odds have moved
Median: 10 on Oct 20, 10.6 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Perez, 1+ pts | 97% | 58¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 209 | |
| Perez, 4+ pts | 96% | 61¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 1.1K | |
| Perez, 7+ pts | 92% | 1¢ | 100¢ | 3.2K | ||
| Perez, 10+ pts | 55% | 0¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 4.0K | |
| Perez, 13+ pts | 28% | 1¢ | 35¢ | $2.86 | 1.5K | |
| Perez, 16+ pts | 8% | 3¢ | 25¢ | $4.00 | 315 | |
| Perez, 19+ pts | 3% | 25¢ | $4.00 | 516 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Washington
Search ›- Congress is coming back to Washington. Here's what to expectLawmakers are returning to Washington this week to finish up work before Democrats take control of the House and Senate in January. Zayrha Rodriguez/NPR hide caption It is the final hoorah for the 119th Congress. Republicans have just…
- Exclusive / AI safety groups outline their plans for a new WashingtonAI safety advocates are counting the midterms as a major win while sketching out their plans for the fight ahead. AI safety advocates are counting the midterms as a major win while sketching out their plans for the fight ahead, according…
- The hard part begins for a divided Washington: Letters to the Editor — Nov. 9, 2026The Issue: The 2026 election results and what’s now ahead for both Democrats and Republicans. Many of the Democrats elected in the midterms don’t have a solid proposal to solve the issues they campaigned on (“Stox in AI meltdown,” Nov. 6)…
- Clinton and Gingrich found common ground. Washington must againWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
- ‘The blue wave isn’t applicable to trans people’: advocates in Washington state prepare to fight banLegal challenge against ballot initiative that bans transgender girls’ participation in girls’ school sports is poised to set off a battle over rights A coalition of advocacy groups are preparing to mount a legal challenge against a…
- Pro-trans activists hold rally against Washington state ballot initiative to protect girls sportsFour states voted on ballot measures to ban transgender athletes from women's sports in the 2026 midterm elections. The measures passed in Arizona and Nebraska, while results in Colorado and Washington remain pending. Transgender-rights…
- DeSantis blasts Washington Post over report he's preparing 2028 presidential bidFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis said Wednesday following the midterm elections that Democrats "did not earn a mandate to indulge all their left-wing fantasies." Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis fired back Friday at a report that he is preparing another…
- The Republicans take the court as the Washington GeneralsWashington Examiner is a news organization based in Washington, D.C., covering Congress, the White House, national security, the courts and elections, with breaking news, investigative reporting and conservative analysis. It publishes a…
- JACKSON THOMPSON: Washington State Democratic Party calls girls' sports initiative unconstitutionalA Washington high school wrestler’s Supreme Court fight could help bring restrictions on transgender athletes in girls’ sports to 23 states. Washington State Democratic Party Chair Shasti Conrad called a voter-approved girls’ sports…
- Blue Colorado and Washington state ban transgender athletes in girls’ sportsBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. The success of the…
- Congressman-elect vows to hold politicians who enrich themselves in Washington 'accountable'Fox News Congressman-elect vows to hold politicians who enrich themselves in Washington 'accountable' Rep.-elect Joe Strada, R-Fla., told Fox News Digital he plans to come to Congress to "serve the American people" and hold politicians who…
- Dana White 'flying to Washington' after Donald Trump offers UFC boss White House press secretary jobU.S. President Donald Trump offered the open White House press secretary position to UFC chief executive Dana White in a social media post on Saturday. "I am pleased to announce that the Great Dana White, a violent Fighter and Warrior, has…
Related markets
All elections ›Alabama's 2nd District margin of victory
6.45median
-132
Median 6.45Middle half 5.52 – 7.38
Alabama's 5th District margin of victory
7%Strong, 10+ pts
737
Alabama's 6th District margin of victory
48%Palmer, 18+ pts
1548
Alabama's 7th District margin of victory
32.6median
948
Median 32.6Middle half 30.3 – 36
Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory
37.4median
2451
Median 37.4Middle half 33.9 – 45.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions