Wisconsin's 8th District margin of victory

Kalshi Elections Closes Nov 3, 2027 · $1.6K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 8 min ago

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The odds

8.07median

027

Median 8.07

How the odds have moved

Median: 8.59 on Oct 19, 8.07 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Wied, 3+ pts	75%	75¢	99¢	$1.01	475
Wied, 6+ pts	75%	75¢	98¢	$1.02	1.3K
Wied, 9+ pts	39%			$2.56	843
Wied, 15+ pts	20%		45¢	$2.22	57.00
Wied, 21+ pts	4%		25¢	$4.00	219

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Wisconsin

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Minnesota, Wisconsin see worst measles outbreak in decades, and more headlinesCBS News · 4 days agoCBS News Minnesota is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WCCO-TV and channel 4, CBS News Minnesota offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Minnesota…
Wisconsin Governor resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Wisconsin Governor general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For…
Wisconsin midterm elections results 2026BBC News · 5 days agoBBC
Wisconsin Question 2 resultsAP News · 5 days agoLive results for the 2026 Wisconsin question 2 election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Wisconsin Question 2 results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178…
Wisconsin Assembly passes constitutional amendment to limit diversity effortsCBS News · 5 days agoFebruary 15, 2024 / 12:05 PM CST / AP A constitutional amendment supported by Republicans that attempts to limit diversity, equity and inclusion efforts in Wisconsin won approval Thursday in the state Assembly. The measure is the latest…
Part of plane flown by ace pilot Richard Bong returns to Wisconsin museumCBS News · 5 days agoCBS News Minnesota is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WCCO-TV and channel 4, CBS News Minnesota offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Part of plane…
Democrat David Crowley wins Wisconsin governor's raceNBC News · 6 days agoNBC News
Wisconsin U.S. House results: 1st DistrictAP News · 6 days agoWisconsin U.S. House Election Live Results 2026 AP News Wisconsin U.S. House results: AP's guide to this race When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178 years, AP has been the steady voice America turns to on election…
What are Wisconsin Democrats’ priorities come January?Twin Cities · 2 days agoBy Kimberly Wethal, Wisconsin State Journal With Democrats claiming both chambers of the Wisconsin Legislature and keeping the governor’s office for the first time in nearly 20 years, expect the priorities of state government to radically…
Wisconsin voters approve Republican-backed amendment on DEI and "government discrimination"CBS News · 5 days agoNovember 4, 2026 / 2:12 PM CST / CBS Chicago Wisconsin voters approved a constitutional amendment Tuesday that prohibits governmental entities from discriminating against or granting preferential treatment based on race, sex, color…
Wisconsin Attorney General resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Wisconsin Attorney General general election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Wisconsin Attorney General results When the nation waits for results, who…
Wisconsin Question 3 resultsAP News · 6 days agoLive results for the 2026 Wisconsin question 3 election. Track election results with real-time vote counts, county-level maps and race calls from AP. Wisconsin Question 3 results When the nation waits for results, who do you trust? For 178…

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Arkansas's 1st District margin of victory

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onWisconsin Elections Commission

Trading closesNov 3, 2027 11:00 AM ET

Traded$1.6K (2,848 contracts)

This week$189

At stake$1.1K

In the news402 headlines today, 745 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the Republican Party wins the 2026 U.S. House of Representatives election in Wisconsin's 8th District by 3 percentage points or more, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions