2028 Florida Republican primary winner?

Kalshi Elections › Primaries Closes Nov 7, 2028 · $14 traded · $14 at stake · prices read 12 h ago

The odds

33%J.D. Vance

J.D. Vance33%▼ 1
Marco Rubio19%▼ 1
Ron DeSantis12%▼ 1
Tucker Carlson5%
Thomas Massie4%

How the odds have moved

J.D. Vance: 35% on Nov 5, 33% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
J.D. Vance	33%	▼ 1	28¢	37¢	$2.70
Marco Rubio	19%	▼ 1	14¢	23¢	$4.35
Ron DeSantis	12%	▼ 1	8¢	16¢	$6.25	120
Tucker Carlson	5%		1¢	8¢	$12.50
Thomas Massie	4%		1¢	7¢	$14.93

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Florida Republican, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio

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Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans another run at White HouseThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Florida’s status as…
As MAGA Falters, Ron DeSantis Steps Out of the ShadowsNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 11:39 AM EST Florida’s outgoing governor Ron DeSantis has been fiercely criticizing Republicans since the GOP’s shellacking in the midterm elections, raising questions about whether the offensive is the opening gambit of…
J.D. Vance 'Waving Goodbye to 2028' After Midterm Losses, Former Trump Official Says, as Marco Rubio Gains BuzzOK! Magazine · 4 days agoAfter the devastating midterm election results, a major political shift has disrupted the outlook for the 2028 Republican presidential nomination as the battered GOP shifts its focus from Vice President J.D. Vance to Secretary of State…
Marco Rubio insists he won’t quit Trump admin — but demurs on growing 2028 buzzNew York Post · 4 days agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio says he is staying put as speculation swirls about his 2028 ambitions, which he declined to address. The top US diplomat and national security adviser dismissed reports by multiple outlets Thursday indicating…
Marco Rubio warns top staff against conflicts of interest as he tightens control of state department after midterms: reportNew York Post · 2 days agoWASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has moved to tighten control over the State Department, telling senior officials that staff must stay in their lanes and avoid actions that present conflicts of interest…
Florida Republicans survived the ‘blue wave’, but find themselves on shaky groundthe Guardian · 3 days agoSunshine state emerged as the lone flag bearer of the Maga agenda, but even there, the GOP finds itself on the defense After the dust settled on Tuesday night’s near-annihilation of the Republican party nationwide, a single red flag…
President Donald Trump may be considering Gov. Ron DeSantis to replace Pete Hegseth, sources sayCBS News · 5 days agoCBS News Miami is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WFOR-TV and channel 4, CBS News Miami offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. President Donald Trump…
We were not immune to this wave: Ron DeSantisFox News · 5 days agoFox News We were not immune to this wave: Ron DeSantis Gov. Ron DeSantis, R-Fla., discusses how the state weathered the Democratic wave in the midterm elections on 'The Ingraham Angle.' Bold conservative policies and crucial ballot…
Gov Ron DeSantis: Texas results will hurt the GOP going forwardFox News · 5 days agoFox News Gov Ron DeSantis: Texas results will hurt the GOP going forward Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis discusses how his state avoided a Democratic electoral wave and lays out where the GOP should go after the midterms on ‘The Ingraham Angle.’
Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picksFox News · 5 days agoFox News Ron DeSantis warns incoming Democratic Senate majority will block Trump Cabinet picks Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis warns that an incoming Democratic Senate majority means no Supreme Court Justice or major cabinet officials will be…
How Ron DeSantis transformed swing-state Florida into the GOP’s best hopeNew York Post · 5 days agoTuesday’s blue tsunami upturned the political order nationwide, even in unlikely places like Texas — but Florida somehow held a solid red line. Gov.-elect Byron Donalds, US Sen. Ashley Moody, Attorney General James Uthmeier and state CFO…
Ron DeSantis Calls GOP Midterm Losses ‘An Extinction Level Event’Newsweek · 5 days agoNewsweek - Global Iran WarRussia-UkraineMiddle EastChina And AsiaLive BlogBetter PlanetAll World News The Most Important Election of Our Lives, Until the Next One w/ Astead Herndon Midterm Election Night, Senate Final Polls, Supreme Court…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onFlorida Department of State, Associated Press, Decision Desk HQ

Trading closesNov 7, 2028 10:00 AM ET

Traded$14 (120 contracts)

This week$14

At stake$14

Followed here sinceNov 5, 2026

The rules

If J.D. Vance wins the 2028 Florida Republican presidential nominating contest, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions