2028 Iowa Republican caucus winner?

Kalshi Elections › President 2028 Closes Nov 7, 2028 · $183 today · $211 traded · $207 at stake · prices read 6 h ago

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The odds

39%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance39%▲ 4
  • Marco Rubio20%▼ 7
  • Ron DeSantis14%▼ 1
  • Ted Cruz5%▲ 2
  • Donald J. Trump Jr.3%
  • Donald J. Trump3%
  • Tucker Carlson3%
  • Thomas Massie3%
  • Ivanka Trump3%
  • Glenn Youngkin3%

How the odds have moved

J.D. Vance: 38% on Oct 19, 39% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
J.D. Vance 39% ▲ 4 35¢ 42¢ $2.38 370
Marco Rubio 20% ▼ 7 16¢ 23¢ $4.35 236
Ron DeSantis 14% ▼ 1 11¢ 16¢ $6.25 99.00
Ted Cruz 5% ▲ 2 2¢ 7¢ $14.29 149
Donald J. Trump Jr. 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00
Donald J. Trump 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00
Tucker Carlson 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 59.00
Thomas Massie 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 1.00
Ivanka Trump 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00
Glenn Youngkin 3% 1¢ 5¢ $20.00 30.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Iowa Republican, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions