2028 New York Republican primary winner?

Kalshi Elections › Primaries Closes Nov 7, 2028 · prices read 5 h ago

Embed

The odds

35%J.D. Vance
  • J.D. Vance35%▼ 1
  • Marco Rubio20%▼ 1
  • Ron DeSantis8%▼ 1
  • Tucker Carlson5%
  • Thomas Massie4%

How the odds have moved

J.D. Vance: 35% on Nov 5, 35% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
J.D. Vance 35% ▼ 1 30¢ 39¢ $2.56
Marco Rubio 20% ▼ 1 15¢ 24¢ $4.17
Ron DeSantis 8% ▼ 1 4¢ 12¢ $8.33
Tucker Carlson 5% 1¢ 8¢ $12.20
Thomas Massie 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.71

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: New York Republican, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio

Search ›
  • One-party rule fails us all — now New York Republicans must rebuildNew York Post · 31 h agoThe future of the New York Republican Party began on Tuesday, Nov. 3, 2026. Amid a night of stunning GOP losses, Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul’s 20-point win over Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman leaves the state Republican Party with…
  • Trump Reflects on Republicans’ Midterm Losses, Reacts to J.D. Vance’s Own Analysis in ’60 Minutes’ InterviewThe Hollywood Reporter · 23 h agoThe president offers a few reasons why he believes the Democrats gave his party a crushing defeat last week. President Donald Trump reflected on the Republicans’ big losses last week with 60 Minutes correspondent Ross Douthat in his first…
  • Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran actionFox News · 27 h agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio defended President Donald Trump's actions against Iran on Sunday, arguing he confronted a national security threat that previous presidents failed to address. Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran action Secretary…
  • Marco Rubio says US has right to defend itselfFox News · 27 h agoSecretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters while traveling to a G7 meeting in Paris. Marco Rubio says US has right to defend itself Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters while traveling to a G7 meeting in Paris.
  • WJ Straw Poll: Ron DeSantis Surges in First Survey Since MidtermsThe Western Journal · 10 h agoFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis surged into second place in The Western Journal’s latest GOP 2028 Presidential Straw Poll, gaining 11 points in a week as support for Vice President J.D. Vance plunged. DeSantis received 16.6 percent of the vote…
  • Marco Rubio warns top staff against conflicts of interest as he tightens control of state department after midterms: reportNew York Post · 2 days agoWASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has moved to tighten control over the State Department, telling senior ​officials that staff must stay in their lanes and avoid actions that present conflicts of interest…
  • Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans another run at White HouseThe Washington Post · 3 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Florida’s status as…
  • As MAGA Falters, Ron DeSantis Steps Out of the ShadowsNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 11:39 AM EST Florida’s outgoing governor Ron DeSantis has been fiercely criticizing Republicans since the GOP’s shellacking in the midterm elections, raising questions about whether the offensive is the opening gambit of…
  • Ron DeSantis cannot prevail against the political tideVillages-News.com · 18 h agoIt is a false hope that Ron DeSantis can take on the task of wading through the turbulent waters and come out successful. The election has clearly changed the landscape for the next decade. Democrats swept across blue and red states alike…
  • New York Republicans face infighting after election lossesSpectrum News NY1 · 23 h agoWith the New York Republican Party's losing campaign against Democrats now over, prominent members of the GOP are turning on each other, including Bruce Blakeman and retiring Rep. Elise Stefanik. Blakeman ran a "low energy campaign with…
  • Gov. Ron DeSantis Warns of More GOP Senate Lossestwitchy.com · 29 h ago"Republicans could lose even more Senate seats in 2028 if the GOP doesn't get its act together," tweets Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Gov. Ron DeSantis Warns of More GOP Senate Losses "Republicans could lose even more Senate seats in 2028…
  • Ron DeSantis says U.S. went too far in Iran conflictThe Miami Times · 12 h agoWith 1,090 votes now separating him from U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, Democrat Eliott Rodriguez is suing Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections Alina Garcia to keep her from making ballot and recount decisions in Florida’s 27th…

Related markets

All primaries ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions