2028 Alaska Republican caucus winner?
35%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance35%▼ 1
- Marco Rubio20%▼ 1
- Ron DeSantis8%▼ 1
2 more
- Tucker Carlson5%
- Thomas Massie4%
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2028 South Carolina Republican primary winner?
The odds
37%J.D. Vance
- J.D. Vance37%▼ 2
- Marco Rubio13%▼ 1
- Ron DeSantis9%▼ 1
- Tucker Carlson5%
- Thomas Massie4%
How the odds have moved
J.D. Vance: 35% on Nov 5, 37% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 8, 1 PM ETJ.D. Vance: 32% → 38%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J.D. Vance | 37% | ▼ 2 | 32¢ | 41¢ | $2.44 | 1.00 |
| Marco Rubio | 13% | ▼ 1 | 8¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 220 |
| Ron DeSantis | 9% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | 10.00 |
| Tucker Carlson | 5% | 1¢ | 8¢ | $11.90 | ||
| Thomas Massie | 4% | 1¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: South Carolina Republican, J.D. Vance, Marco Rubio
Search ›- Trump Reflects on Republicans’ Midterm Losses, Reacts to J.D. Vance’s Own Analysis in ’60 Minutes’ InterviewThe president offers a few reasons why he believes the Democrats gave his party a crushing defeat last week. President Donald Trump reflected on the Republicans’ big losses last week with 60 Minutes correspondent Ross Douthat in his first…
- Marco Rubio defends Pete Hegseth amid Massie's impeachment push'America Reports' covers State Secretary Marco Rubio's defense of War Secretary Pete Hegseth amid a push for impeachment by Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky. Marco Rubio defends Pete Hegseth amid Massie's impeachment push 'America Reports' covers…
- Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran actionSecretary of State Marco Rubio defended President Donald Trump's actions against Iran on Sunday, arguing he confronted a national security threat that previous presidents failed to address. Marco Rubio defends Trump's Iran action Secretary…
- Marco Rubio says US has right to defend itselfSecretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters while traveling to a G7 meeting in Paris. Marco Rubio says US has right to defend itself Secretary of State Marco Rubio speaks to reporters while traveling to a G7 meeting in Paris.
- WJ Straw Poll: Ron DeSantis Surges in First Survey Since MidtermsFlorida Gov. Ron DeSantis surged into second place in The Western Journal’s latest GOP 2028 Presidential Straw Poll, gaining 11 points in a week as support for Vice President J.D. Vance plunged. DeSantis received 16.6 percent of the vote…
- Marco Rubio warns top staff against conflicts of interest as he tightens control of state department after midterms: reportWASHINGTON, Nov 7 (Reuters) – US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has moved to tighten control over the State Department, telling senior officials that staff must stay in their lanes and avoid actions that present conflicts of interest…
- Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis plans another run at White HouseBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Florida’s status as…
- As MAGA Falters, Ron DeSantis Steps Out of the ShadowsNov 06, 2026 at 11:39 AM EST Florida’s outgoing governor Ron DeSantis has been fiercely criticizing Republicans since the GOP’s shellacking in the midterm elections, raising questions about whether the offensive is the opening gambit of…
- Ron DeSantis cannot prevail against the political tideIt is a false hope that Ron DeSantis can take on the task of wading through the turbulent waters and come out successful. The election has clearly changed the landscape for the next decade. Democrats swept across blue and red states alike…
- Gov. Ron DeSantis Warns of More GOP Senate Losses"Republicans could lose even more Senate seats in 2028 if the GOP doesn't get its act together," tweets Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R). Gov. Ron DeSantis Warns of More GOP Senate Losses "Republicans could lose even more Senate seats in 2028…
- Ron DeSantis says U.S. went too far in Iran conflictWith 1,090 votes now separating him from U.S. Rep. María Elvira Salazar, Democrat Eliott Rodriguez is suing Miami-Dade Supervisor of Elections Alina Garcia to keep her from making ballot and recount decisions in Florida’s 27th…
- HAHA VIDEO – Marco Rubio shuts DOWN reporters asking him about 2028Secretary of State Marco Rubio shut down reporters today asking him about 2028, and he did so in no uncertain terms. Watch below…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions