Will SCOTUS bar contempt for conduct not clearly prohibited by an injunction? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
77%chance▲ 1
Install
Will SCOTUS reject a benchmark requirement for ERISA fund-underperformance claims? (Before Aug 1, 2028)
The odds
12%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 16% on Oct 19, 12% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 12% | 9¢ | 15¢ | $6.67 | 1.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, SCOTUS, ERISA
Search ›- 6 candidates compete for 2 seats on Michigan's Supreme CourtNovember 3, 2026 / 8:15 AM EST / CBS Detroit A pair of seats on the Michigan Supreme Court are up for grabs on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Chief Justice Megan Cavanagh, first elected in 2018, and Justice Noah Hood are the Democratic Party's nominees…
- Michigan Supreme Court names Megan Cavanagh new chief justiceMarch 13, 2025 / 5:31 PM EDT / AP The Michigan Supreme Court announced its justices have selected a new chief justice with the upcoming departure of the current incumbent. The justices unanimously selected Megan Cavanagh to succeed…
- LISTEN LIVE: Supreme Court hears Catholic preschool religious liberty caseThe Supreme Court hears arguments over Colorado's preschool funding program and religious discrimination claims. LISTEN LIVE: Supreme Court hears Catholic preschool religious liberty case The Supreme Court hears arguments over Colorado's…
- Supreme Court hears Catholic plea to participate in Colorado preschool programWASHINGTON — Tackling the latest in a series of cases that pit LGBTQ and religious rights against each other, the Supreme Court on Tuesday will consider whether Catholic entities should be exempted from the state’s antidiscrimination rules…
- Supreme Court rules against ignoring CA ballots | CNN PoliticsCNN's Gabe Cohen breaks down the Supreme Court's rejection of President Donald Trump's attempt to force California to sideline potentially thousands of ballots that the Justice Department claims may have been cast by noncitizens. President…
- Supreme Court rejects Trump's request in California mail ballots disputeThe Supreme Court on Monday turned down a last-ditch effort from the Trump administration to require California to separate mail ballots received from thousands of people that it claims are not U.S. citizens. Tom Wait reports. Supreme…
- Supreme Court rejects Trump request to segregate California ballots before midterm electionCNN Supreme Court rejects Trump request to segregate California ballots before midterm election CNN's Gabe Cohen joins The Lead.
- Supreme Court rejects Trump's request to stop California counting disputed votesThe US Supreme Court has rejected a last-minute request by the Trump administration asking it to intervene in California's midterm election vote count. The justice department wanted 20,000 ballots to be set aside that it alleged may have…
- Supreme Court rejects Trump's effort to force California to separate mail ballots from alleged noncitizensUpdated on: November 2, 2026 / 5:02 PM PST / CBS News Washington — The Supreme Court on Monday turned down a last-ditch effort from the Trump administration to require California to separate mail ballots received from thousands of people…
- DOJ asks for Supreme Court to intervene on California ballot demandsThe U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, DC, on Oct. 14, 2026. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption With just a day to go before Election Day on Nov. 3, the Department of Justice is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into its feud…
- US supreme court to hear arguments in Catholic preschools’ LGBTQ+ exclusion caseA decision could reshape the relationship between religious freedom and nondiscrimination laws in the US The US supreme court will hear arguments on Tuesday over a challenge brought by two Catholic preschools in Colorado, arguing that they…
- Supreme Court Rejects Trump’s Demand to Set Aside California BallotsNov 02, 2026 at 12:03 PM EST Nov 02, 2026 at 08:30 PM EST In the final hours before Election Day, the United States Supreme Court denied an appeal from the Trump administration for 20,000 mail-in ballots to be set aside in California, over…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions