Fed Decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 3
- No change19%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
US SPR level for the week ending November 6, 2026
The odds
279.5median
276289
Median 279.5Middle half 279.2 – 279.8
How the odds have moved
Median: 281.1 on Nov 5, 279.5 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 277M | 98% | ▲ 7 | 95¢ | $1.03 | 651 | |
| Above 278M | 97% | ▲ 90 | 93¢ | $1.04 | 1.8K | |
| Above 279M | 96% | ▲ 31 | 91¢ | $1.05 | 3.0K | |
| Above 280M | 5% | ▼ 57 | 9¢ | $11.11 | 1.4K | |
| Above 281M | 4% | ▼ 55 | 8¢ | $12.50 | 2.2K | |
| Above 282M | 4% | ▼ 6 | 7¢ | $14.29 | 650 | |
| Above 283M | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 50.00 | ||
| Above 284M | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 50.00 | ||
| Above 285M | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 50.00 | ||
| Above 286M | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 50.00 | ||
| Above 287M | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 50.00 | ||
| Above 288M | 1% | 2¢ | $50.00 | 50.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news
No recent headlines name this market's subject.
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456,512median
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions