Wisconsin manufacturing employment average in 2026
456,512median
445,000465,000
Median 456,512Middle half 454,940 – 458,238
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Will Trump cut the China trade gap below $150B in 2026?
The odds
11%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 54% on Oct 10, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 5, 12 AM ET26% → 10%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Nov 1, 11 PM ET67% → 26%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 24, 12 AM ET54% → 70%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 11% | 10¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 1.8K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
Search ›- As Trump-Xi summit nears, China sustains maritime pressure around TaiwanUser account menu (drawer) Ahead of Trump's summit with Xi, ACLED's Laura Sorica discusses pressure around the Taiwan Strait. 21 September 2026 2 minute read Laura Sorica, Asia-Pacific Analyst at ACLED, said: “We are also seeing efforts to…
- Democratic Congress Could Challenge Trump’s China Policy on Taiwan, Technology: AnalystsThe Democrats’ Nov. 3 midterm elections victory gives them control of both chambers of Congress, potentially increasing pressure on President Donald Trump over Taiwan arms sales, technology restrictions on China, and negotiations with…
- China & Taiwan Update, November 3, 2026Data Cutoff: November 2, 2026 The People’s Liberation Army Navy Modernization. The People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) may be preparing to commission Sichuan, the only amphibious assault vessel in the world with an electromagnetic…
- China to further ease travel for Taiwan residentsZhu Fenglian, spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, made the remarks at a regular news conference, where she also rejected allegations by Taiwan's "mainland affairs council" regarding the safety of Taiwan residents…
- Taiwan Weighs Tighter Controls on Chip Exports to Chinese MainlandCaixin Global Taiwan Weighs Tighter Controls on Chip Exports to Chinese Mainland The economic affairs committee of Taiwan’s legislative body held a public hearing on Monday on proposed amendments to the Trade Act that would tighten…
- ASIA BLOG: Taiwan is giving China an economic thrashingHad anyone suggested in spring that the standout economic performance in East Asia in 2026 would come from an island of 23mn people dismissed by ...
- Are Taiwan and the Philippines facing renewed Chinese maritime pressure?User account menu (drawer) ACLED's Asia-Pacific Analyst, Laura Sorica, looks at recent Chinese activity in the Taiwan Strait and the South China Sea. 6 October 2026 2 minute read Last week saw a notable concentration of maritime incidents…
- Chinese mainland: Taiwan has no right to join InterpolZhu Fenglian, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, speaks during a press conference in Beijing, China, on November 4, 2026. /VCG Taiwan, as part of China, does not have the right to become an Interpol member, a…
- What Might China's Southern Command Do in Taiwan Conflict?Wollongong-based online news outlet covering Australia and beyond. If you have anything newsworthy - a story, video or picture to share with us, please email us. A conflict between the US and China over Taiwan would be particularly…
- Taiwan tracks 21 Chinese military aircraft and 16 ships | Taiwan News | Nov. 5, 2026 09:26Taiwan sends aircraft and naval vessels, deploys missile systems Nov. 5, 2026 09:26 TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The Ministry of National Defense tracked 21 Chinese military aircraft, eight naval vessels, and eight official ships between 6 a.m…
- Oracle nixes $7B chip leasing deal with China’s Tencent after Trump admin pushback: reportOracle has reportedly nixed a $7 billion deal to lease computer chips to Chinese tech giant Tencent after getting pushback from the Trump administration. The deal struck by Oracle and its billionaire chairman Larry Ellison would have…
- Mainland spokeswoman emphasizes culture in Taiwan is part of Chinese cultureChina Daily Mainland spokeswoman emphasizes culture in Taiwan is part of Chinese culture "Culture in Taiwan is part of Chinese culture. We urge Shen Pao-yang and those like him to find joy in doing good and wisdom in reading books," said…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions