Fed Decision in December?
80%25 bps increase
- 25 bps increase80%▲ 3
- No change19%▼ 4
- 25 bps decrease1%
2 more
- 50+ bps increase1%
- 50+ bps decrease<1%
Install
Texas crude oil production in 2026
The odds
5.75median
5.506
Median 5.75Middle half 5.72 – 5.78
How the odds have moved
Median: 5.78 on Oct 10, 5.75 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 5.6 million barrels/day | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 55.0K | |
| Above 5.7 million barrels/day | 97% | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 198.1K | |
| Above 5.8 million barrels/day | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 87.1K | |
| Above 5.9 million barrels/day | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $33.33 | 83.4K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: oil prices, crude oil, OPEC
Search ›- Crude oil prices fall below $90 a barrel as Vance blames GOP election defeat on Iran warCrude oil prices tumbled on Wednesday after Vice President JD Vance blamed the war against Iran for Republican midterm election reversals. U.S. West Texas Intermediate was 7% lower at $89.40. Brent crude futures, the international…
- BOJ sees rising crude oil prices sustaining inflation risksEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
- Soybean oil prices fall in Brazil and Argentina amid sharp decline in crude oil futuresUkrAgroConsult Soybean oil prices fall in Brazil and Argentina amid sharp decline in crude oil futures Soybean oil export prices in Brazil and Argentina fell significantly on November 4, 2026, as a sharp decline in crude oil futures…
- Crude oil prices crash: Here are the stocks witnessing a positive reaction on ThursdayOil-sensitive stocks witnessed a sharp rally on Thursday, November 5, after global crude oil prices plunged more than 8% overnight, falling below the $100-a-barrel mark and subsequently slipping under $95 a barrel. Shares of state-run oil…
- Crude Oil Prices Plummet a Day After the Election (but It's Probably Just a Coincidence)One day after the midterm election, two economic-related things are happening. First, the stock market is having a really good day. Democrats and their media allies would like everybody to believe it's because that party will be taking…
- Rupee Extends Gains For 5th Day, Crude Oil Prices Fall As US Midterms Raise Iran War HopesThe Indian rupee extended its winning streak for the fifth consecutive session on Thursday, while crude oil prices tumbled as investors bet that the Democrats' sweeping gains in the US midterm elections could push President Donald Trump…
- Nifty Auto Surges Nearly 3%, Auto Stocks Zoom On Crude Oil Price FallAutomobile stocks rallied sharply on Thursday, with the Nifty Auto index climbing 2.9%, or 761 points, to emerge as the top-performing sectoral index on the National Stock Exchange (NSE). The rally was supported by falling global crude oil…
- Oil India, ONCG, other upstream companies’ stocks fall up to 5% as crude oil prices decline for 4th dayShares of Oil India, ONGC and other upstream oil companies fell up to 5 percent on Thursday as crude oil prices extended their decline for the fourth consecutive session. Upstream companies, which are engaged in the exploration and…
- Crude oil prices fall on hopes of end to West Asia war after US midtermsCrude oil futures traded lower Thursday morning as a major Democratic victory in US midterm elections raised hopes of an end to the war in West Asia. Market reports said a Democratic-controlled Congress could limit the funding for military…
- Oil prices drop below $100 for the first time in nearly a monthOil prices dropped sharply on Wednesday, as European Brent crude fell below $100 per barrel for the first time since Oct. 7. The move translated to a nearly $9 drop, or a more than 8% decline. U.S. crude oil, or WTI, also slipped 8% to…
- AAA: National Average Tumbles as Crude Oil Prices DeclineThe national average gasoline price dropped 14 cents over the past week to $4.16, while Western Pennsylvania prices declined by approximately five cents. Western Pennsylvania Gas Prices CLARION COUNTY, Pa. (EYT) – Gas prices are five cents…
- US-Iran Diplomacy Hopes Weigh on Crude Oil PricesDecember WTI crude oil (CLZ26) closed down -0.37 (-0.38%) on Tuesday, and December RBOB gasoline (RBZ26) closed up +0.0354 (+1.22%). Crude oil and gasoline prices settled mixed on Tuesday, with Dec WTI crude oil falling to a 2-week low…
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All working families ›Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
83%chance▲ 8
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions