US Leading Economic Index change in October (October 2026)

Kalshi Economy › Jobs Closes Nov 19 · $2.2K traded · $135 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

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The odds

-0.09%median
-0.5%0.4%
Median -0.09%Middle half -0.29% – 0.07%

How the odds have moved

Median: 0.02% on Oct 23, -0.09% now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Above -0.4% 96% 91¢ $1.05 759
Above -0.3% 77% 73¢ 81¢ $1.23 226
Above -0.2% 62% 58¢ 66¢ $1.52 865
Above -0.1% 52% 47¢ 56¢ $1.79 574
Above 0.0% 32% ▼ 1 28¢ 36¢ $2.78 1.1K
Above 0.1% 22% 17¢ 26¢ $3.85
Above 0.2% 10% ▼ 2 7¢ 12¢ $8.33 885
Above 0.3% 4% ▼ 1 1¢ 7¢ $14.29 903

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Leading Economic Index

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  • The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US Inched Down in May@PRNewswire · 14 days agoJun 20, 2025, 10:00 ET NEW YORK, June 20, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- The Conference Board Leading Economic Index® (LEI) for the US ticked down by 0.1% in May 2025 to 99.0 (2016=100), after declining by 1.4% in April (revised downward from –1.0%…
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  • Quiet Under $85K@glassnode · 13 days agoBitcoin is back under the $84K-85K band it briefly cleared around the September high. ETF demand has faded, but each dip now realizes smaller losses, and volatility is back to summer 2023 levels ahead of the Fed decision on October 28…
  • Japan Leading Economic Index in line with expectations (118) in AugustFXStreet · 15 days agoComposed of a group of economic journalists and FX experts, the FXStreet content team produces and oversees all content published on FXStreet. It provides a purely journalistic approach to the Forex market. Find independent, trusted…
  • Economy holds steady despite grim consumer expectations: Conference BoardYahoo Finance · 19 days agoA signal of future U.S. economic growth held steady last month despite flagging consumer expectations, declining orders for capital goods and a slight pullback in building permits, the Conference Board said Thursday. After falling 0.1% in…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions