Fed decisions (Sep–Dec)
81%Hike–Pause–Hike
- Hike–Pause–Hike81%▲ 6
- Hike–Pause–Pause17%▼ 3
- Other1%
2 more
- Hike–Hike–Hike<1%▼ 3
- Hike–Hike–Pause<1%▼ 2
Install
Fed decisions (Oct-Jan)
The odds
76%Pause-Hike-Pause
- Pause-Hike-Pause76%▲ 7
- Pause-Pause-Pause10%▲ 1
- Pause-Pause-Hike8%▼ 6
- Pause-Hike-Hike6%▼ 1
- Other1%▼ 1
- Hike-Pause-Pause<1%
- Hike-Pause-Hike<1%▼ 1
- Hike-Hike-Hike<1%▼ 1
- Hike-Hike-Pause<1%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Pause-Hike-Pause: 52% on Oct 20, 76% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 8 PM ETPause-Hike-Pause: 70% → 76%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pause-Hike-Pause | 76% | ▲ 7 | 76¢ | 78¢ | $1.28 | $97.7K |
| Pause-Pause-Pause | 10% | ▲ 1 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | $23.3K |
| Pause-Pause-Hike | 8% | ▼ 6 | 7¢ | 10¢ | $10.31 | $16.1K |
| Pause-Hike-Hike | 6% | ▼ 1 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $14.71 | $31.6K |
| Other | 1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | 1¢ | $83.33 | $6.8K |
| Hike-Pause-Pause | <1% | 1¢ | $2.3K | |||
| Hike-Pause-Hike | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2.3K | ||
| Hike-Hike-Hike | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $2.3K | ||
| Hike-Hike-Pause | <1% | ▼ 1 | 0¢ | $3.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal Reserve, Fed, FOMC
Search ›- Will a Federal Reserve Interest Rate Hike Trigger a Recession? Here's What History Says.Trading activity implies a 70% probability that the federal funds rate will be higher before year-end. After its meeting that ended Oct. 28, the Federal Reserve decided to leave its federal funds rate unchanged. This comes after it raised…
- Federal Reserve: December rate hike view reinforced – Commerzbank"The report reinforces our view that the Federal Reserve will raise rates again in December because of inflation risks." "Of the 18 Fed officials who submitted projections for the appropriate path of interest rates in September, 16…
- Federal Reserve Board announces approval of two applications by Mutual Federal Bancorp, MHC, and MFB Bancorp, Inc.The Federal Reserve Board on Monday announced its approval of two applications by Mutual Federal Bancorp, MHC, and MFB Bancorp, Inc., both of Chicago, Illinois An official website of the United States Government Official websites use .gov…
- Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.50%-3.75%BREAKING: The Federal Reserve on Wednesday kept interest rates unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75%, seeking to signal stability as the U.S. financial picture diverges sharply between a record-setting stock market and a weakening currency. Federal…
- President Donald Trump Just Proclaimed That "Inflation Is Way Down," but Federal Reserve Economists Have a Different TakeNot only are consumer prices rising, but two of President Trump’s policies are partly to blame. From a purely statistical standpoint, Wall Street has relished having Donald Trump in the White House. The average annual return of the…
- Labor force rebounds, raising new questions for the Fed: Here's what you need to knowCNBC's Steve Liesman joins 'Squawk Box' to discuss the state of the labor market, the Federal Reserve, and more. Got a confidential news tip? We want to hear from you. Sign up for free newsletters and ... Labor force rebounds, raising new…
- Trump talked with Fed chief, but there’s no record of it on Warsh’s calendarBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Kevin Warsh’s…
- Democrats' midterm sweep gives gold a boost, but the Federal Reserve still holds the cards(Kitco News) - The Democratic Party's sweeping victory in the U.S. midterm elections has created some positive momentum in the gold market, but recent price action shows that political developments remain a secondary concern as the Federal…
- Fed to cut rate-vote meetings under Warsh FOMC planTwo of eight annual FOMC meetings would stop carrying rate votes under Chairman Kevin Warsh's plan, a change Bloomberg reported would begin in 2027 and complete by 2028. The Federal Reserve’s eight policy meetings a year are the metronome…
- New Federal Reserve Research Finds Cutting Merchant Swipe Fees Even Hurts Consumers Who Don’t Earn Rewardsby Gary Leff on November 6, 2026 You can earn no miles, no points and no cash back from your credit card and still lose if the government cuts credit card merchant swipe fees. Research from two Philadelphia Federal Reserve economists…
- FILE PHOTO: New York Federal Reserve Bank President John Williams speaks in New YorkThe Daily News | Texas' Oldest Newspaper - Bikes, bands and big crowds bound for Galveston - Texas Land Commissioner Dawn Buckingham loses to Democratic challenger - Police charge two La Marque residents after child reports sexual abuse…
- Branches of The Federal Reserve SystemThe Board of Governors is the main governing body of the Federal Reserve System. The board comprises seven members. They are generally nominated by the President and are confirmed by the Senate, for a tenure of fourteen years. One term…
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How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?
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- 8 (200 bps)<1%
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2 more
- 4 (100 bps)<1%
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions