Venezuela leader end of 2026?

Polymarket World › The Americas Closes Dec 31 · $56.1K today · $100M traded · $749K at stake · prices read 4 min ago

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The odds

94%Nicolás Maduro
  • Nicolás Maduro94%
  • Delcy Rodríguez6%
  • No Head of State<1%
  • Edmundo González<1%
  • María Corina Machado<1%
  • Marco Rubio<1%
  • Pete Hegseth<1%
  • Diosdado Cabello Rondón<1%
  • Dinorah Figuera<1%
  • Donald Trump<1%
  • Vladimir Padrino López<1%
  • Jorge Rodríguez<1%
4 more
  • Evan Pettus<1%
  • Frank Donovan<1%
  • Dan Caine<1%
  • Richard Grenell<1%

How the odds have moved

Nicolás Maduro: 73% on Oct 20, 94% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
Nicolás Maduro 94% 94¢ 94¢ $1.06 $4.1M
Delcy Rodríguez 6% 5¢ 7¢ $14.29 $2.6M
No Head of State <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.7M
Edmundo González <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.6M
María Corina Machado <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.8M
Marco Rubio <1% 0¢ 0¢ $1.6M
Pete Hegseth <1% 0¢ 0¢ $9.4M
Diosdado Cabello Rondón <1% 0¢ $2.2M
Dinorah Figuera <1% 0¢ $3.1M
Donald Trump <1% 0¢ $1.2M
Vladimir Padrino López <1% 0¢ $891K
Jorge Rodríguez <1% 0¢ $1.3M
Evan Pettus <1% 0¢ $5.7M
Frank Donovan <1% 0¢ $26M
Dan Caine <1% 0¢ $4.2M
Richard Grenell <1% 0¢ $32.8M

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Venezuela, Maduro, Nicolás Maduro

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  • Special Report Part 5: What Was Life Like Under Nicolás Maduro?Liberty Nation News · 40 h agoIndependent news and opinion from a constitutional perspective. Your morning advantage. Critical news, fearless analysis, and the truth mainstream media won't tell you—delivered before your first coffee. Special Report Part 5: What Was…
  • Special Report 6: Was Nicolás Maduro Much More Brutal Than Hugo Chávez?Liberty Nation News · 35 h agoIndependent news and opinion from a constitutional perspective. Your morning advantage. Critical news, fearless analysis, and the truth mainstream media won't tell you—delivered before your first coffee. Special Report 6: Was Nicolás…
  • Florida’s most Venezuelan city put the Republican Party on noticeThe Washington Post · 2 days agoOf all the places that got swept up in the Democratic “blue wave,” one of the most unlikely was the heart of the Venezuelan diaspora in the U.S. Doral, a city in South Florida often called “Doralzuela” for its large concentration of…
  • The Destruction of Venezuela’s Economy under Chávez and MaduroMises Institute · 3 days agoIn the Venezuelan case, the first beneficiaries were the state and its circle of associates, while those who bore the effects last were workers, teachers, and retirees, whose incomes lost purchasing power before they could spend them in…
  • Dominican committee demands release of Nicolas Maduro, Cilia FloresPrensa Latina · 5 days agoMembers of the organization gathered at Simon Bolivar Plaza in Caracas to reiterate their call for the release of both individuals, whom they described as “prisoners of war of the United States.” In a statement, the Committee condemned…
  • Jailed Maduro Hits 92% in Venezuela MarketThe Rio Times · 4 days agoTraders on Polymarket now put the chance that Nicolás Maduro, the jailed former president, is Venezuela’s head of state on 31 December at about 92%, up about 17 points in a week. That price sits awkwardly with the facts. Maduro was…
  • Stephen Miller Unleashes Fire Over Venezuela Strike: 'Damn Straight' We Seized Maduro to Protect Americaredstate.com · 3 days agoSenior White House advisor Stephen Miller delivered an unapologetic, full-throated defense of the operation that captured Venezuelan dictator Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, in a recent appearance on CNN. That defense came about…
  • Machado visits camp outside notorious Venezuelan prisonMacau Business · 3 days agoVenezuelan opposition leader Maria Corina Machado visited relatives of political prisoners camping outside a notorious detention facility on Friday, after her recent return from exile. Machado’s homecoming has unsettled Venezuela’s…
  • US assisted Venezuela in deadly drone strike, officials saySan Juan Daily Star · 4 days agoBy ANNIE CORREAL, ERIC SCHMITT, ISAYEN HERRERA and JULIE TURKEWITZ For years, a Colombian rebel army operated freely across the border in Venezuela, allowed to traffic cocaine and oversee illicit gold mines under Nicolás Maduro, the…
  • Trump Kidnapped Venezuela’s President. Now Britain Looks to ProfitOrinoco Tribune · 3 days agoBy Ana Maria Monjardino and John McEvoy – Oct 1, 2026 BP and Shell are cashing in on Venezuela’s oil and gas following the kidnapping of Nicolás Maduro. Britain’s energy giants stand to make huge profits in Venezuela amid a major…
  • Venezuela Oil Deals Face Fresh Scrutiny as US Congress FlipsEnergy Intelligence · 4 days agoEnergy Intelligence Venezuela Oil Deals Face Fresh Scrutiny as US Congress Flips US dealings in Venezuela are likely to see far greater oversight after Democrats swept to power in both houses of the US Congress in stunning midterm election…
  • Rubio Eyes Venezuela Election in 2027The Rio Times · 4 days agoWashington has floated a year for Venezuela’s return to the ballot box, and it came with a hedge. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said on Thursday, Nov. 5, 2026, that elections would "ideally" be held next year, but he would not promise a…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

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