US recession by end of 2026?
4%chance
Install
UK Annual GDP Growth 2026
The odds
1.48%median
-1%6%
Median 1.48%Middle half 1.2% – 1.76%
How the odds have moved
Median: 1.48% on Oct 20, 1.48% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Polymarket.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| <0 | <1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $13.3K | ||
| 0-1% | 6% | 6¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | $28.5K | |
| 1-2% | 90% | 88¢ | 88¢ | $1.14 | $47.6K | |
| 2-3% | 2% | 0¢ | 3¢ | $29.41 | $6.4K | |
| 3-4% | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $4.7K | ||
| 4-5% | <1% | 0¢ | 0¢ | $10.7K | ||
| 5%+ | 1% | 0¢ | 1¢ | $90.91 | $6.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: GDP, economic growth, UK Annual GDP Growth
Search ›- Workers' rights 'second place' to economic growthVideo, 00:00:40Workers' rights 'second place' to economic growth Up Next. Watch: How rapist Brand was never far from controversy. Video, 00:01:29Watch: How rapist Brand was never far from controversy Trump reacts to US midterm results…
- Data centers are unpopular — and a key motor of economic growth, experts sayNovember 6, 2026 / 3:50 PM EST / CBS News The shifting political winds surrounding data centers could buffet the entire U.S. economy, reducing investment in artificial intelligence and slowing growth, according to Wall Street analysts…
- Sexual Freedom and Its Impact on Economic Growth and ProsperityThe mission of the Independent Institute is to boldly advance peaceful, prosperous, and free societies grounded in a commitment to human worth and dignity. Sexual Freedom and Its Impact on Economic Growth and Prosperity In his notorious…
- Renewable Policies Outperform Carbon Pricing in Decoupling European Economic Growth From EmissionsAn econometric panel study of European Union nations indicates that renewable energy policies decoupled economic growth from emissions more effectively than carbon pricing between 1996 and 2014. Subject of Research: Econometric evaluation…
- Unlocking the African diaspora's financial capital for economic growthOn Monday, November 16 at 9:30 a.m. ET, the Atlantic Council’s Africa Center will host a conversation on mobilizing the African diaspora’s capital at scale to unlock investment opportunities across the continent. By registering to attend…
- Argentina aims to revive economic growthLatinFinance Register now and get 1 free PRO article every week. Thank you for registering! Get daily transaction coverage from across the region Enter the code sent to your email We'll send a verification code to %EMAIL%.
- Jay Rockefeller remembered for bringing Toyota to W.Va., fueling state's economic growthPUTNAM COUNTY, W.Va. (WCHS) — Perhaps one of Sen. Jay Rockefeller's biggest economic accomplishments was bringing the Toyota manufacturing plant to Putnam County. Today, Toyota is one of the region's top employers and a major economic…
- Gov't consumption supports Indonesia's Q3 2026 economic growthGovt consumption supports Indonesias Q3 2026 economic growth ANTARA News Gov't consumption supports Indonesia's Q3 2026 economic growth Translator: Fauzul Azhim Bin Fakhrurazi
- Zambia aims for 4.9% economic growth in 2027, finance minister saysTradingView Zambia aims for 4.9% economic growth in 2027, finance minister says
- TVET MUST DRIVE ECONOMIC GROWTH –MINISTER OWEN TELLS ECOT GRADUANDSMBABANE – Minister of Education and Training Owen Nxumalo has challenged the country to change its perception of Technical and Vocational Education and Training (TVET), insisting that it must be recognised as a central pillar of economic…
- Science Minister visits York to discuss regional innovation and economic growthChanging lives for the better through academic excellence and bold, creative thinking. A member of the Russell Group, we're a research-intensive university founded on excellence, equality and opportunity for all. Learn about the University…
- Innovating urban development models to boost economic growth.To contribute to the goal of double-digit economic growth, Vietnamese cities need to shift from development based on expanding space and infrastructure to improving productivity, resource efficiency, and the quality of life for their…
Related markets
All growth & recession ›Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
0.34%median
-3.2%4.8%
Median 0.34%Middle half -0.44% – 1.01%
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.5%median
0%10%
Median 4.5%Middle half 4.24% – 4.76%
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
151median
120185
Median 151Middle half 145.7 – 157.6
Wisconsin total milk production in 2026
33.4median
32.534
Median 33.4Middle half 33.3 – 33.5
US share of global GDP in 2026
25.66%median
25%26.2%
Median 25.66%Middle half 25.5% – 25.83%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions