US recession by end of 2026?
4%chance
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Growth & recession odds
Every Growth & recession market on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com: the odds, the money behind them, the biggest moves and the news.
Trending growth & recession markets
Recession in 2027?
21%chance▼ 1
US real GDP growth in 2026?
2.3%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.3%Middle half 2.17% – 2.43%
US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
3.07%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.07%Middle half 2.25% – 3.76%
US real GDP growth in 2030?
2.43%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.43%Middle half 1.33% – 3.43%
US real GDP growth in Q1 2027?
2.21%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.21%Middle half 1.11% – 3.22%
US real GDP growth in 2033?
2.1%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.1%Middle half 1.3% – 3.82%
US real GDP growth in 2031?
2.46%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.46%Middle half 1.33% – 3.76%
US real GDP growth in 2036?
1.93%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 1.93%Middle half 1.62% – 2.47%
US real GDP growth in 2035?
1.98%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 1.98%Middle half 0.85% – 3.45%
US real GDP growth in Q2 2027?
2.32%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 2.32%Middle half 1.35% – 3.26%
US real GDP growth in 2028?
2.2%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.2%Middle half 0.89% – 3.22%
US real GDP growth in 2032?
2.86%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.86%Middle half 1.42% – 4.77%
US Real GDP (Q3 2026)
3.03%median
-4.5%5.5%
Median 3.03%Middle half 2.66% – 4%
US real GDP growth in 2034?
2.24%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.24%Middle half 1.14% – 3.17%
US real GDP growth in 2027?
2.41%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.41%Middle half 1.36% – 3.64%
US real GDP growth in 2029?
2.37%median
-0.3%6.4%
Median 2.37%Middle half 1.43% – 3.81%
China Annual GDP Growth 2026
4.5%median
0%10%
Median 4.5%Middle half 4.24% – 4.76%
Japan GDP growth in Q3 2026 (QoQ Annualized)?
0.29%median
-3.2%4.8%
Median 0.29%Middle half -0.45% – 1.01%
Nebraska corn yield in 2026
183.8median
165195
Median 183.8Middle half 180.3 – 188.8
South Dakota corn yield in 2026
151.0median
120185
Median 151.0Middle half 145.7 – 157.7
Mississippi cotton production in 2027
895,238median
500,0001.20M
Median 895,238Middle half 726,829 – 1.06M
Average Iowa farmland value in the 2026 ISU survey
$11,875median
$11,000$12,250
Median $11,875
Wisconsin total milk production in 2026
33.4median
32.534
Median 33.4Middle half 33.3 – 33.5
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions