Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027?
6%chance
Install
Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027?
The odds
9%chance
How the odds have moved
Yes: 10% on Oct 20, 9% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 9% | 8¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | $3.7M |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: China, Taiwan
Search ›- Taiwan detains a Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Authorities in Taiwan…
- Taiwan detains Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionHe's accused of running under the direction of China’s Communist Party. TAIPEI, Taiwan -- Authorities in Taiwan detained the leader of the island's Taiwan People’s Communist Party, accusing him of running as a candidate for borough chief…
- Former NCT Member Lucas Wong Makes Acting Debut in Taiwanese Folk-Music Drama ‘A Time’ With Jerry Yan, Ning Chang at Taiwan Creative Content FestTaiwanese director Tsao Jui-yuan unveiled his new drama series “A Time,” rooted in Taiwan’s campus folk music movement of the 1970s, at the Taiwan Creative Content Fest (TCCF). Tsao, known for “Crystal Boys,” “A Touch of Green” and…
- Taiwan closes Papua New Guinea office amid China pressureTaiwan will close its representative office in Papua New Guinea and bring home every staff member assigned there, Focus Taiwan reported on November ...
- Foreign ministry condemns China-Gabon statement on Taiwan sovereignty | Taiwan News | Nov. 7, 2026 15:11Nov. 7, 2026 15:11 TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The foreign ministry on Saturday condemned China for making false claims about Taiwan's sovereignty in a joint statement with Gabon, CNA reported. The statement was issued Friday after talks…
- Chang Chen Urges Emerging Taiwanese Actors to ‘Be Like Water’ at Taiwan Creative Content Fest Golden Horse ShowcaseChang Chen, chair of the Taipei Golden Horse Film Festival Executive Committee and last year’s Golden Horse best leading actor winner for “Lucky Lu,” advised six of Taiwan’s rising performers on working across different film sets at a…
- Taiwan Receives Three More US F-16V Fighters as China Tensions PersistTAIPEI, Nov 8: Taiwan received a second batch of three newly manufactured F-16V Block 70 fighter jets from the United States on Sunday, bringing the total number of aircraft delivered under its latest ... Taiwan Receives Three More US…
- US cites China in PNG closure of Taiwan site - Taipei TimesThe US government has expressed concern over the closure of Taiwan’s representative office in Papua New Guinea (PNG) under pressure from the PNG government, saying that the incident is another example of Beijing’s intimidation of Taiwan…
- Taiwan detects 4 Chinese military aircraft, 8 ships around island in 24 hoursTaiwan's Ministry of National Defence (MND) said it detected four sorties of Chinese military aircraft, six vessels belonging to the people's liberation army navy (PLAN) and two official ships operating around the island during a 24-hour…
- US midterm elections: What the results mean for mainland China, Taiwan and foreign policySouth China Morning Post US midterm elections: What the results mean for mainland China, Taiwan and foreign policy SCMP’s US deputy bureau chief Mark Magnier breaks down what the Democrats taking Congress means, from a resurgence in Taiwan…
- Taiwan Detains Party Chief in China Interference ProbeDemocrats’ gains in Congress set up investigations and efforts to challenge President Trump’s tariffs and other economic policies, including through oversight hearings and symbolic repeal votes. Trump’s veto power and plans to rely on…
- China & Taiwan Update, November 6, 2026Data Cutoff: November 5, 2026 PRC Cognitive Warfare. The PRC’s decision not to announce this major military exercise is a notable deviation that may be intended to create the impression that the PLA can isolate Taiwan at will. The PRC aims…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions