Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
2%chance
Install
Who will be added to Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?
The odds
27%DeepSeek
- DeepSeek27%▲ 1
- Moonshot AI23%▲ 4
- ByteDance16%▲ 7
- Xiaomi13%
How the odds have moved
DeepSeek: 17% on Oct 20, 27% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETDeepSeek: 28% → 36%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Traded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DeepSeek | 27% | ▲ 1 | 26¢ | 27¢ | $3.70 | $48.4K |
| Moonshot AI | 23% | ▲ 4 | 21¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | $20.9K |
| ByteDance | 16% | ▲ 7 | 15¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | $61.6K |
| Xiaomi | 13% | 12¢ | 13¢ | $7.69 | $78.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Chinese Military Companies, Moonshot AI
Search ›- Novogene Filed Lawsuit Against US Defence Department Over 'Chinese Military Company' DesignationTradingView Novogene Filed Lawsuit Against US Defence Department Over 'Chinese Military Company' Designation
- Moonshot AI releases Kimi K3.1 Pro model weightsTechNode Moonshot AI has released the weights of Kimi K3.1 Pro on Hugging Face, making its flagship multimodal model available for independent deployment. The model uses a mixture-of-experts architecture with 2.8 trillion total parameters…
- Moonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro Deployed on AMD Instinct MI355X GPUsMoonshot AI's Kimi K3.1 Pro, a 2.8T-parameter model, is deployed on AMD Instinct MI355X GPUs with ATOM and vLLM support for multimodal AI tasks. Moonshot AI has announced the deployment of its latest multimodal AI model, Kimi K3.1 Pro, on…
- Moonshot AI Releases Full Weights For 2.8 Trillion Parameter Kimi K3.1 ProRon Patel tracks and reports on the fast-moving world of agentic platforms and artificial intelligence for SF. He covers how AI systems and autonomous agents are changing the way businesses build and operate, following the tools and…
- China’s Moonshot AI seeks Nvidia Blackwell access in Europe, CNBC reportsThe Beijing-based lab, known for its Kimi model family, discussed renting infrastructure from European neocloud providers hosting clusters of 8,000 or more Blackwell GPUs, CNBC reported, citing people familiar with the matter. Those…
- Moonshot AI tried to tap Nvidia Blackwell chips via Europe, sources sayMoonshot AI has been exploring ways to use Nvidia's advanced processors through European data centers, four people with knowledge of the discussions said. The setup would involve renting capacity from non-Chinese neocloud or data center…
- Moonshot AI Discussed European Blackwell Leases Amid U.S. Chip CurbsCNBC reported on November 5, 2026, that Moonshot AI had discussed leasing Nvidia Blackwell computing capacity from neocloud operators in Europe, citing four people familiar with the private talks. One source described potential clusters of…
- Moonshot AI Releases Full 1.56TB Weights of Kimi K3.1 Pro for Free, Permits Commercial Use With ConditionsChinese AI developer Moonshot AI on November 4 released the model weights of its large language model Kimi K3.1 Pro for free. The weights are distributed on Hugging Face and can be downloaded and used by anyone. The published repository…
- Moonshot AI sought access to Nvidia Blackwell chips in Europe — CNBCChinese artificial intelligence laboratory Moonshot AI discussed renting computing capacity at European data centers equipped with Nvidia Blackwell graphics processing units. CNBC reports, citing four people familiar with the course of the…
- Moonshot AI Launches Game Development Suite with 20-Hour Unattended RunMoonshot AI released a game development system for its Kimi platform on November 3, 2026, embedding its K3.1 model series into Unity, Unreal Engine and Blender. The suite pairs Kimi Code and Kimi Work agents with specialized engine…
- Chinese AI lab Moonshot turned to Europe for Nvidia Blackwell access amid U.S. China curbs, sources tell CNBCMoonshot AI, a Chinese artificial intelligence lab that the White House accused of accessing Nvidia advanced chips remotely in East Asia, has sought access to the chips through data centers in Europe, sources have told CNBC. Deals have…
- Chinese Biotech Firm Challenges US Military Blacklist PlacementBloomberg Law News Biotechnology developer Novogene Co. and its US-based subsidiary are suing the Defense Department over a designation that places it on a blacklist for companies assisting the Chinese military. The Pentagon’s decision to…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions