2028 Elections

The general election is November 7, 2028, 729 days away. Every House seat, 32 Senate seats and the governorships with markets below, with what prediction markets and the coverage say.

Control of the Senate

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Seats now

R 53 RepublicansI 2 IndependentsD 45 Democrats

Who wins control: market odds

  • 2028 U.S. Senate winner?Kalshi
    • Democratic party88%
    • Republican party12%
    201K contracts traded · closes Feb 1, 2029 · updated 1m ago
  • Which party will win the Senate in 2028?Polymarket
    • Democratic Party88%▲1
    • Republican Party13%
    $5K traded · closes Nov 7, 2028 · updated 1m ago
  • Balance of Power: 2028 ElectionPolymarket
    • Democratic Trifecta53%
    • Republican Trifecta14%▲2
    • D President, R Senate, D House9%▼1
    • + 5 more outcomes
    $10K traded · closes Nov 7, 2028 · updated 1m ago

Control of the House

Details →

Seats now

R 218 RepublicansI 1 IndependentD 214 Democrats2 vacant

Who wins control: market odds

Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.

Senate races

State Holds the seat Market favorite By party
Lisa MurkowskiR Senator, Alaska Republican party 70% Kalshi R 70% D 27% Kalshi
Katie Boyd BrittR Senator, Alabama Republican party 92% Kalshi R 92% D 8% Kalshi
John BoozmanR Senator, Arkansas Republican party 85% Kalshi R 85% D 7% Kalshi
Mark KellyD Senator, Arizona Democratic party 70% Kalshi R 28% D 70% Kalshi
Alex PadillaD Senator, California Democratic party 90% Kalshi R 10% D 90% Kalshi
Michael F. BennetD Senator, Colorado Democratic party 89% Kalshi R 11% D 89% Kalshi
Richard BlumenthalD Senator, Connecticut Democratic party 95% Kalshi R 4% D 95% Kalshi
See the race Republican party 67% Kalshi R 67% D 31% Kalshi
Raphael G. WarnockD Senator, Georgia Democratic party 75% Kalshi R 24% D 75% Kalshi
Brian SchatzD Senator, Hawaii Democratic party 86% Kalshi R 10% D 86% Kalshi
Chuck GrassleyR Senator, Iowa Republican party 64% Kalshi R 64% D 36% Kalshi
Mike CrapoR Senator, Idaho Republican party 86% Kalshi R 86% D 12% Kalshi
Tammy DuckworthD Senator, Illinois Democratic party >99% Kalshi R 2% D >99% Kalshi
Todd YoungR Senator, Indiana Republican party 80% Kalshi R 80% D 18% Kalshi
Jerry MoranR Senator, Kansas Republican party 81% Kalshi R 81% D 19% Kalshi
Rand PaulR Senator, Kentucky – –
John KennedyR Senator, Louisiana Republican party 84% Kalshi R 84% D 15% Kalshi
Chris Van HollenD Senator, Maryland Democratic party 92% Kalshi R 5% D 92% Kalshi
Eric SchmittR Senator, Missouri Republican party 85% Kalshi R 85% D 14% Kalshi
Ted BuddR Senator, North Carolina Democratic party 68% Kalshi R 28% D 68% Kalshi
John HoevenR Senator, North Dakota Republican party 87% Kalshi R 87% D 9% Kalshi
Margaret Wood HassanD Senator, New Hampshire Democratic party 89% Kalshi R 14% D 89% Kalshi
Catherine Cortez MastoD Senator, Nevada Democratic party 66% Kalshi R 33% D 66% Kalshi
Charles E. SchumerD Senator, New York Democratic party 92% Kalshi R 3% D 92% Kalshi
See the race Democratic party 50% Kalshi R 48% D 50% Kalshi
James LankfordR Senator, Oklahoma Republican party 85% Kalshi R 85% D 11% Kalshi
Ron WydenD Senator, Oregon Democratic party 85% Kalshi R 11% D 85% Kalshi
John FettermanD Senator, Pennsylvania Democratic party 70% Kalshi R 24% D 70% Kalshi
Tim ScottR Senator, South Carolina Republican party 78% Kalshi R 78% D 21% Kalshi
John ThuneR Senator, South Dakota Republican party 92% Kalshi R 92% D 11% Kalshi
Mike LeeR Senator, Utah Republican party 78% Kalshi R 78% D 22% Kalshi
Peter WelchD Senator, Vermont Democratic party 90% Kalshi R 7% D 90% Kalshi
Patty MurrayD Senator, Washington Democratic party 88% Kalshi R 7% D 88% Kalshi
Ron JohnsonR Senator, Wisconsin Democratic party 68% Kalshi R 32% D 68% Kalshi

"Market favorite" is the leading outcome of the most traded market on the race; open a state for every market and the news.

Governor races

State Market favorite By party
Democratic party 85% Kalshi R 9% D 85% Kalshi
Republican 87% Kalshi R 87% D 14% Kalshi
Republican 89% Kalshi R 89% D 11% Kalshi
Republican 76% Kalshi R 76% D 20% Kalshi
Democratic 64% Kalshi R 29% D 64% Kalshi
Republican party 89% Kalshi R 89% D 17% Kalshi
Republican party 85% Kalshi R 85% D 16% Kalshi
Democratic 62% Kalshi R 37% D 62% Kalshi
Democratic party 95% Kalshi R 3% D 95% Kalshi
Republican 86% Kalshi R 86% D 14% Kalshi

House races with the most trading

District Holds the seat Market favorite
Warren DavidsonR Rep., OH-8 Republican party 90% Kalshi
Paul A. GosarR Rep., AZ-9 Republican party 92% Kalshi
Abraham J. HamadehR Rep., AZ-8 Republican party 91% Kalshi
Rudy Yakym IIIR Rep., IN-2 Republican party 92% Kalshi
Dan NewhouseR Rep., WA-4 Republican party 88% Kalshi
Scott FranklinR Rep., FL-18 Republican party 85% Kalshi
Paul TonkoD Rep., NY-20 Democratic party 90% Kalshi
Scott FitzgeraldR Rep., WI-5 Republican party 87% Kalshi
Steve WomackR Rep., AR-3 Republican party 98% Kalshi
Eric SorensenD Rep., IL-17 Democratic party 82% Kalshi
Robert E. LattaR Rep., OH-5 Republican party 93% Kalshi
Analilia MejiaD Rep., NJ-11 Democratic party 90% Kalshi
Jack BergmanR Rep., MI-1 Republican party 90% Kalshi
Mike LevinD Rep., CA-49 Democratic party 93% Kalshi
J. French HillR Rep., AR-2 Republican party 87% Kalshi
Julia LetlowR Rep., LA-5 Republican party 97% Kalshi
Pete SessionsR Rep., TX-17 Republican party 91% Kalshi
Thomas P. TiffanyR Rep., WI-7 Republican party 90% Kalshi
Lloyd SmuckerR Rep., PA-11 Republican party 90% Kalshi
Mike HaridopolosR Rep., FL-8 Republican party 86% Kalshi
James R. BairdR Rep., IN-4 Republican party 88% Kalshi
Gus M. BilirakisR Rep., FL-12 Republican party 81% Kalshi
Lance GoodenR Rep., TX-5 Republican party 90% Kalshi
William R. KeatingD Rep., MA-9 Democratic party 94% Kalshi
Tony WiedR Rep., WI-8 Republican party 88% Kalshi
Frank Pallone, Jr.D Rep., NJ-6 Democratic party 95% Kalshi
Troy A. CarterD Rep., LA-2 Democratic party 93% Kalshi
Darin LaHoodR Rep., IL-16 Republican party 86% Kalshi
Lauren UnderwoodD Rep., IL-14 Democratic party 87% Kalshi
Sean CastenD Rep., IL-6 Democratic party 95% Kalshi
Daniel WebsterR Rep., FL-11 Republican party 82% Kalshi
Glenn GrothmanR Rep., WI-6 Republican party 88% Kalshi
Kevin HernR Rep., OK-1 Republican party 90% Kalshi
Nikki BudzinskiD Rep., IL-13 Democratic party 93% Kalshi
Mary E. MillerR Rep., IL-15 Republican party 90% Kalshi
Mike JohnsonR Rep., LA-4 Republican party 91% Kalshi
Morgan McGarveyD Rep., KY-3 Democratic party 91% Kalshi
Don BaconR Rep., NE-2 Democratic party 89% Kalshi
Ron EstesR Rep., KS-4 Republican party 90% Kalshi
Christopher H. SmithR Rep., NJ-4 Republican party 92% Kalshi

435 House districts have markets; every member's page shows the market on their own seat.

Other 2028 election markets

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Election news

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