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Prediction markets
What traders give each outcome in elections, Congress, the courts, the White House and the economy, most traded first. Every bill, vote, member and race page shows the markets on it too. Each market's news, its biggest moves and the markets on everything else: Predictions.
- Next French Presidential ElectionPolymarket
- Marine Le Pen45%
- David Lisnard14%▼1
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- Édouard Philippe10%▲1
- + 7 more outcomes
- Democratic Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket
- Jon Ossoff27%▲2
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez16%
- Gavin Newsom9%▲1
- Pete Buttigieg6%
- + 12 more outcomes
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- March 3169%▲3
- December 3138%▲3
- December 1527%
- November 3016%▼5
- + 1 more outcome
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- Democratic party98%▲1
- Republican party2%▼1
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- Jon Ossoff25%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez14%▲1
- Gavin Newsom11%▼1
- Kamala Harris6%▼1
- + 12 more outcomes
- Presidential Election Winner 2028Polymarket
- Jon Ossoff19%▲2
- JD Vance18%
- Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez12%
- Marco Rubio9%
- + 13 more outcomes
- Fed Decision in December?Polymarket
- 25 bps increase80%▲3
- No change19%▼4
- 25 bps decrease<1%
- 50+ bps increase<1%
- + 1 more outcome
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- J.D. Vance33%
- Marco Rubio18%▼2
- Ron DeSantis16%▼1
- John McEntee5%▲1
- + 9 more outcomes
- Republican Presidential Nominee 2028Polymarket
- J.D. Vance33%
- Marco Rubio20%▼1
- Ron DeSantis15%
- Tucker Carlson4%
- + 6 more outcomes
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- Scott Colom99%
- Cindy Hyde-Smith2%
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- 280-29949%▲34
- 260-27927%▼14
- 300-31920%▲13
- 320-3393%
- + 2 more outcomes
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- Yes10%▲3
- Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?Polymarket
- Yes9%▼4
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- December 31, 202640%
- November 30, 202621%▲5
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- December 3180%
- November 3063%▲7
- November 2254%▲3
- November 1544%▲2
- + 1 more outcome
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- 280-29921%▲7
- 300-31919%▲6
- 260-27915%▼3
- 320-33914%▲7
- + 7 more outcomes
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- Yes4%▲2
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- Yes37%▼7
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- Raymond Smith Jr.85%▲1
- Greg Murphy16%
- Trump out as President before 2027?Polymarket
- Yes2%
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- November 3019%▼10
- November 2112%▼6
- November 146%▼5
- Iran leadership change by...?Polymarket
- June 30, 202723%▼1
- December 318%▼1
- November 302%
- Another Fed rate hike in 2026?Polymarket
- Yes83%▲7
- Pete Hegseth impeached by...?Polymarket
- June 30, 202785%▲6
- March 31, 202784%▲6
- December 31, 202682%▲9
- What will be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?Polymarket
- Dilution of Iran's Uranium14%▲3
- Uranium Enrichment % Cap (1+ Year)13%▲3
- ≤5% Uranium Enrichment Cap (1+ Year)12%▲2
- 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium9%▼1
- + 2 more outcomes
- Putin out as President of Russia by...?Polymarket
- June 30, 20279%▼1
- March 31, 20276%
- December 31, 20262%
- Taipei Mayor Election WinnerPolymarket
- Chiang Wan-an68%▲1
- Puma Shen33%▼1
- Kuo Hsi<1%
- US imports Russian diesel by...?Polymarket
- March 3124%▼8
- January 3120%▼6
- December 3118%▼7
- November 3010%▼8
- + 1 more outcome
- Next Prime Minister of Spain?Polymarket
- Alberto Núñez Feijóo93%
- Pedro Sánchez7%
- Santiago Abascal<1%
- Isabel Díaz Ayuso<1%
- + 2 more outcomes
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- Above 5299%▼1
- Below 45<1%
- 51<1%
- 52<1%
- + 2 more outcomes
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
Congressional and federal records come from official public sources: the House Clerk, the U.S. Senate, GovInfo and the Library of Congress (bill status), the Federal Register, and the congress-legislators project. They are copied on a schedule and may lag the official record by a few hours; the official sources govern. News and coverage counts are drawn from the 4Progressives index and reflect what the press published, not 4Progressives's views. Nothing here is an endorsement of any candidate, party or position. Terms of use. How to use Politics