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WA-5 House Race 2026 (Washington)
The markets' leading names: Michael Baumgartner, Carmela Conroy.
Prediction markets
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- Michael Baumgartner98%
- Carmela Conroy1%
Prediction-market prices show what traders are paying for each outcome, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong. Not betting or investment advice.
In the news
- Michael Baumgartner’s position strengthens after Thursday ballot drop
Congressman Michael Baumgartner’s narrow lead over Democratic challenger Carmela Conroy grew again Thursday night as more ballots were counted. While the race remains too close to call with tens of thousands of votes outstanding, the…
- Local Washington State House Rep. Republican Joe Schmick Has Strong Lead-Local WA Congressman Republican Michael Baumgartner Has Narrow 1% Lead
Local Washington State Representative Republican Joe Schmick has a strong lead after the first ballot count Tuesday night. Schmick leads Democrat Karina Wallace with 61% of the vote. Local Washingt… Local Washington State Representative…
- Baumgartner is claiming victory in 5th congressional district race, the race hasn't been officially called
Credit: Michael Baumgartner via X SPOKANE, Wash. -- Rep. Baumgartner is claiming victory in Washington's 5th Congressional District race as latest numbers show his lead over Carmela Conroy has grown to 3.6 %. However, the race has not been…
- 4 takeaways from Washington’s election tsunami
Published 11:45 am Thursday, November 5, 2026 By Jerry Cornfield and Jake Goldstein-Street Washington State Standard Tuesday’s blue wave could remake the political landscape of Washington state. But the leftward trend didn’t carry over to…
- Updated results: Republicans continue leading local races in Walla Walla County
An election worker carries ballots into the Elections Center after 8 p.m. on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Republican candidates for Congressional District 5, Legislative District 16 and county auditor were still leading their races as of Friday, Nov…
- Four takeaways from Washington state’s election tsunami
Tuesday’s blue wave could remake the political landscape of Washington state. But the leftward trend didn’t carry over to a conservative-backed initiative to bar transgender girls from girls’ sports in public schools. Over 2 million…
- WA 5th Congressional District too close to call as the country swings to the left
Washington 5th Congressional District incumbent, Republican Michael Baumgartner, speaks with members of the media during a Republican election night event at the Swinging Doors on Tuesday, Nov. 3. Voters across the country were watching…
- Stucker takes lead over Neal in county commissioner race
OKANOGAN — Republican challenger Trinity Hightower Stucker has taken the lead over incumbent Republican Jon R. Neal in the Okanogan County commissioner race, leading by 256 votes in the latest general election results released Wednesday…
- Baumgartner vs. Conroy race is anyone’s game
The race to represent Eastern Washington in Congress is closer than anytime since at least 1980, when Tom Foley defeated John Sonneland with 51.9% of the vote, and recent history shows it could swing either way in the coming days. Freshman…
- Baumgartner’s narrow lead grows slightly Wednesday
The race to represent Eastern Washington in Congress is closer than at any time since at least 1980, when Tom Foley defeated John Sonneland with 51.9% of the vote, and recent history indicates it could swing either way in the coming days…
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