Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
49%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%49%
- Falls to 6.5%9%
- Falls to 6.25%5%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
Install
New Home Sales (Sep 2026)
Settled Between 665,000 and 690,000A day before, traders had a median of 647,500
The last odds before it closed
647,500median
- ✓ Above 365,00081%
- ✓ Above 390,00081%
- ✓ Above 440,00081%
- ✓ Above 490,00081%
- ✓ Above 540,00081%
- ✓ Above 565,00081%
- ✓ Above 590,00081%
- ✓ Above 615,00081%▲ 2
- ✓ Above 640,00059%
- ✓ Above 665,00029%
- Above 690,00012%
- Above 715,0005%
8 more
- Above 740,0003%
- Above 765,000<1%
- Above 790,000<1%
- Above 840,000<1%
- Above 890,000<1%
- Above 940,000<1%
- Above 990,000<1%
- Above 1,040,000<1%
How the odds have moved
Median: 650,000 on Oct 20, 647,500 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Last odds | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ✓ Above 365,000 | 81% | |||||
| ✓ Above 390,000 | 81% | 100 | ||||
| ✓ Above 440,000 | 81% | 90.00 | ||||
| ✓ Above 490,000 | 81% | 140 | ||||
| ✓ Above 540,000 | 81% | 190 | ||||
| ✓ Above 565,000 | 81% | 160 | ||||
| ✓ Above 590,000 | 81% | 410 | ||||
| ✓ Above 615,000 | 81% | 405 | ||||
| ✓ Above 640,000 | 59% | 190 | ||||
| ✓ Above 665,000 | 29% | 120 | ||||
| ✗ Above 690,000 | 12% | 80.00 | ||||
| ✗ Above 715,000 | 5% | 20.00 | ||||
| ✗ Above 740,000 | 3% | 10.00 | ||||
| ✗ Above 765,000 | <1% | |||||
| ✗ Above 790,000 | <1% | |||||
| ✗ Above 840,000 | <1% | |||||
| ✗ Above 890,000 | <1% | |||||
| ✗ Above 940,000 | <1% | |||||
| ✗ Above 990,000 | <1% | |||||
| ✗ Above 1,040,000 | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: New Home Sales
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions