Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?
49%↑ 7.50%
- Reaches 7.5%49%
- Falls to 6.5%16%
- Falls to 6.25%5%
Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%
Install
US new home · Sales in October (October 2026)
The odds
671,200median
580,000760,000
Median 671,200Middle half 632,000 – 708,000
How the odds have moved
Median: 630,000 on Oct 29, 671,200 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 600,000 | 92% | 87¢ | 96¢ | $1.04 | 19.00 | |
| Above 620,000 | 84% | 79¢ | 89¢ | $1.12 | ||
| Above 640,000 | 69% | 67¢ | 71¢ | $1.41 | 6.8K | |
| Above 660,000 | 57% | 52¢ | 62¢ | $1.61 | 1.7K | |
| Above 680,000 | 45% | ▲ 2 | 43¢ | 46¢ | $2.17 | 1.4K |
| Above 700,000 | 29% | 24¢ | 34¢ | $2.94 | ||
| Above 720,000 | 19% | 14¢ | 24¢ | $4.17 | 154 | |
| Above 740,000 | 12% | 7¢ | 17¢ | $5.88 | 52.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Sales
Search ›- Barbie sales are down as kids clamor for new batch of toysBarbie is not turning heads like she used to. Sales of the iconic doll were down 9% in Mattel’s most recent quarter, the toy giant repored earlier this week Thursday. It was the third consecutive quarter Barbie sales were down — and the…
- Tesla to wind down Cybertruck production after years of poor sales in few marketsTesla will wind down Cybertruck production at its Texas gigafactory around mid-2027, CEO Elon Musk said on Friday, after years of persistently weak sales for a futuristic model once touted as a rival to legacy pickup trucks that ultimately…
- Oil sector’s nuts and bolts sales pick upAfter months of war-related belt-tightening by global oil and gas companies, the makers of bolts, pumps, and other widgets are beginning to see sales pick up. After months of war-related belt-tightening by global oil and gas companies, the…
- Wayfair furniture we swear by is up to 80% off with early Black Friday salesGet your wallets ready — the holiday deals are coming in hot! Black Friday may still be a few weeks away, but the holiday shopping frenzy is already underway, and Wayfair’s Early Black Friday sale is giving shoppers a head start on their…
- Get up to 57% off at Target, Gap, Home Depot and more — these are the best early Black Friday sales happening nowYou don’t have to wait until Black Friday to start saving. Target, Walmart, Gap, Home Depot and Ulta have already launched early holiday sales, with up to 50% off tech, beauty, home items and more. Shopping now means you can grab popular…
- McDonald's plans new value menu offerings next year to boost sluggish salesA ‘Barron’s Roundtable' panel discusses how the fast-food chain will manage the pinch to consumers wallets. McDonald's is testing new value menu offerings with an eye toward launching a new national value menu program in early 2027. The…
- Nintendo’s game sales offset weaker Switch 2 demand.Nintendo’s Switch 2 sales decreased by 37.4 percent year-over-year to 6.49 million units in the recent two quarters. That all adds up to just over 26 million total Switch 2 sales since its launch last year. Despite the year-over-year dip…
- Lionsgate Quarterly Revenue Pops 41% on Strength of ‘Michael,’ TV Series Sales as Studio Narrows Net LossLionsgate turned in another strong quarter — helped again by the studio’s blockbuster biopic on the King of Pop. For the three months ended Sept. 30, Lionsgate’s Q2 of fiscal 2026, the company reported revenue of $668.8 million, up 41%…
- Bigger bacon and ditching breakfast: Wendy’s reveals turnaround plan as sales slump continues - CNNWendy’s reported its seventh consecutive quarter of declining sales, prompting the company to reveal a turnaround plan while rejecting a massive takeover offer. Thursday’s earnings caps off a tumultuous period for the 56-year-old chain…
- McDonald's plans to cook up cheaper menu items in move to heat up salesUpdated on: November 4, 2026 / 2:04 PM PST / CBS News McDonald's plans to offer more lower-priced menu items next year as it tries to lure inflation-weary customers struggling with the cost of living. McDonald's CEO Christopher Kempczinski…
- Capture Boards Sales On Josh Holloway-Led Western ‘Flint’ — AFMEXCLUSIVE: Capture, the international sales joint venture between Signature Entertainment and Capstone Studios, has boarded international sales rights to Flint, the Western starring Josh Holloway and based on the novel by popular author…
- ‘African Kung-Fu Nazis’ Franchise Lands at Hong Kong’s Cappu Films for International Sales (EXCLUSIVE)International sales on cult martial arts splatter comedy “African Kung-Fu Nazis,” its sequel and a behind-the-scenes documentary have gone to Hong Kong-based Cappu Films. The deal, struck with filmmaker and producer Sebastian Stein of…
Related markets
All housing ›US existing home sales for October (October 2026)
3.80median
3.504.40
Median 3.80Middle half 3.73 – 3.89
US existing home · Median sales price in October (October 2026)
$416,410median
$390,000$440,000
Median $416,410Middle half $412,500 – $419,615
NYC median asking rent in December 2026
$3,999median
$3,700$4,600
Median $3,999Middle half $3,933 – $4,088
US mortgage applications change in the next MBA report (Nov 11, 2026)
1%median
-12%12%
Median 1%Middle half -1.94% – 4.09%
Will California home prices increase YoY in Q4 2026?
35%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions