Will the 30-year Mortgage Rate hit __ in 2026?

Polymarket Economy › Housing Closes Jan 14, 2027 · $661 today · $114K traded · $6.6K at stake · prices read 23 min ago

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The odds

49%↑ 7.50%
  • Reaches 7.5%49%
  • Falls to 6.5%9%
  • Falls to 6.25%5%
  • Falls to 6%3%
  • Falls to 5.9%1%
  • Falls to 5.7%1%
  • Falls to 5.5%1%

Already reached: ↑ 7.25%, ↑ 7.00%, ↑ 6.75%, ↑ 6.50%, ↑ 6.30%, ↑ 6.20%

How the odds have moved

Falls to 6%: 5% on Oct 20, 3% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Polymarket. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Traded
✓ ↑ 6.20% >99% 100¢ 100¢
✓ ↑ 6.30% >99% ▼ 2 100¢ 100¢ $29.4K
✓ ↑ 6.50% >99% ▲ 13 100¢ 100¢ $6.9K
✓ ↑ 6.75% >99% ▲ 2 100¢ 100¢ $5.5K
✓ ↑ 7.00% >99% ▲ 10 100¢ 100¢ $8K
✓ ↑ 7.25% >99% ▲ 11 100¢ 100¢ $3.3K
↑ 7.50% 49% ▲ 14 24¢ 73¢ $1.37 $3.5K
↓ 5.50% 1% 0¢ 3¢ $33.33 $3.4K
↓ 5.70% 1% 0¢ 2¢ $66.67 $13.1K
↓ 5.90% 1% 3¢ $38.46 $11.6K
↓ 6.00% 3% 2¢ 5¢ $18.52 $4.3K
✓ ↓ 6.00% >99% ▲ 27 100¢ 100¢ $673
↓ 6.25% 5% ▲ 1 2¢ 7¢ $13.51 $5.6K
↓ 6.50% 9% ▲ 8 7¢ 12¢ $8.70 $18.4K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Mortgage Rate

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  • Mortgage Rates Today, November 6, 2026: 30-Year Rates Drop to 7.18%WSJ Buyside · 4 days agoMortgage rates are down from yesterday and over 7.00%. Today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.18%, according to Bankrate. If you choose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate is 6.59%. The Federal Reserve…
  • Mortgage Rates Today, November 5, 2026: 30-Year Rates Drop to 7.22%WSJ Buyside · 4 days agoPrime Big Deal Days Mortgage rates are down from yesterday and over 7.00%. Today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.22%, according to Bankrate. If you choose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate is 6.60%…
  • Mortgage rates drop for the third straight week, but homebuyers are still leaving the marketCNBC · 6 days agoAfter a brief bounce the week before, mortgage demand continued its slide last week, despite falling mortgage rates. Total application volume fell 1.% week-to-week, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association's seasonally adjusted index…
  • Mortgage Rates Today, November 4, 2026: 30-Year Rates Drop to 7.23%WSJ Buyside · 6 days agoPrime Big Deal Days Mortgage rates are down from yesterday and over 7.00%. Today’s national average on a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.23%, according to Bankrate. If you choose a 15-year fixed-rate mortgage, the average rate is 6.61%…
  • Mortgage Rates Today, Friday, November 6: A Little LowerNerdWallet · 3 days agoYou're our first priority.Every time. TL;DR: Mortgage rates dropped today, but inflation data could shake things up next week. Mortgages for bad credit With the midterm elections behind us, mortgage rates are continuing their gradual slide…
  • US mortgage rates fall a 3rd week@nwademgaz · 4 days agoWASHINGTON -- The average long-term U.S. mortgage rate fell for the third straight week, offering some relief to prospective homebuyers facing higher home prices. The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage in the U.S. declined from 7.24% last…
  • Mortgage Rates Hold Steady at Lows Despite Stronger Jobs ReportMortgage News Daily · 3 days agoToday was an odd one for mortgage rates. Anyone who's been following the rate market for very long will tell you that the monthly jobs report is one of the most reliable source of volatility for rates. In general, when job growth is much…
  • Handelsbanken and SEB raise three-month mortgage ratesMarketScreener · 4 days agoHandelsbanken and SEB are raising their listed mortgage rates for three-month fixed terms by 0.25 percentage points to 4.19 percent. This is shown in the banks' rate tables.The increases follow the... Handelsbanken and SEB are raising…
  • LA housing market — Mortgage rates above 7% trigger 18% drop in salesThe Korea Daily · 3 days agoMortgage rates exceeding 7% have caused a sharp contraction in the housing market across Los Angeles and the broader Southern California region. According to a 10th-month housing market report released by real estate platform Zillow…
  • Report: Southern Nevada home sales slip again as mortgage rates risevegasinc.lasvegassun.com · 3 days agoHomes are pictured in this 2016 overview of the Las Vegas Valley. By VEGAS INC Staff (contact) Friday, November 6, 2026 - 5 a.m. Home sales in Southern Nevada fell again in October while prices held steady, according to a report released…
  • Oklahoma City home sales fall 8% as mortgage rates rise above 7%The Journal Record · 3 days agoBy : Journal Record Staff//November 6, 2026// Home sales in the Oklahoma City metro fell an estimated 8% in October from a year earlier as mortgage rates climbed above 7%, according to Zillow‘s October Market Report. The typical metro home…
  • ASB tips higher mortgage rates despite Reserve Bank’s surprise holdNZ Adviser · 3 days agoSix-month fixed is cheapest, but economists expect every term to rise ASB economists expect mortgage rates to keep climbing across every term, even after the Reserve Bank of New Zealand (RBNZ) unexpectedly left the official cash rate (OCR)…

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