US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?
3.07%median
-0.5%4.5%
Median 3.07%Middle half 2.25% – 3.76%
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US Real GDP (Q4 2026)
The odds
0.29%median
-5.5%2.5%
Median 0.29%Middle half -0.24% – 1.69%
How the odds have moved
Median: 1.41% on Oct 20, 0.29% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on ForecastEx.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above -4.5 | 94% | $1.06 | 10.00 | |||
| Above -3.5 | 91% | $1.10 | 30.00 | |||
| Above -2.5 | 90% | $1.11 | 100 | |||
| Above -1.5 | 89% | $1.12 | 150 | |||
| Above -0.5 | 87% | $1.15 | 160 | |||
| Above 0.5 | 40% | $2.48 | 160 | |||
| Above 1 | 40% | $2.48 | 170 | |||
| Above 1.5 | 40% | $2.48 | 130 | |||
| Above 2 | <1% |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The same question on Kalshi
- US real GDP growth in Q4 2026?MedianKalshi 3.07%ForecastEx 0.29%2.78 pts apart
Shown side by side, never averaged: each venue's rules decide its own market.
The news: GDP, economic growth, Real GDP
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions