How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.2median
-850
Median 26.2Middle half 23.1 – 29.4
Install
When will a catastrophic AI duty of care become U.S. law?
The odds
44%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20277%
- Before Jul 1, 202726%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202844%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 19, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7% | 3¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 2.4K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 26% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 18.00 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 44% | ▲ 1 | 40¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 4.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Federal AI
Search ›- Start small, measure well: a better path to federal AI adoptionThe Office of Management and Budget’s 2025 inventory reported more than 3,600 artificial intelligence use cases across federal agencies. As agencies decide which applications deserve greater investment, the number of AI deployments matters…
- Rove and Axelrod doubt federal AI regulation over next two yearsIntelligent Insurer
- Hospitals Lose Federal AI Model Card Disclosures Under HTI-5 as Epic Pledges to Keep Its Own Transparency ToolsSoftware companies that sell certified electronic health records will no longer have to give hospitals standardized "model cards" explaining how their artificial intelligence tools were built, tested, and checked for bias. The requirement…
- Democrats Prepare New AI Legislation Targeting Model Safety and Rapid ExpansionWebinar | The Agentic Mindset Shift: How to Onboard an Agentic Data Team Three sessions, real playbooks, proven results you can replicate. US Federal News Bureau Written by: Tathagata Sen Updated 2:42 PM EST, November 6, 2026 Democrats are…
- The U.S. Government Now Has a Dedicated AI Prosecutor: What Every Business Deploying Advanced AI Needs to KnowThe DOJ-SITF is co-chaired by Associate Attorney General Stanley Woodward and Associate Deputy Attorney General Stephen Weiss, both reporting directly to Attorney General Todd Blanche. Blanche, confirmed as the 88th Attorney General in…
- Wall Street Opens Mixed as Investors Pivot Away from the AI SectorThe New York Stock Exchange kicked off the session with portfolio rotations following the Democratic Party's victory in the midterm elections, securing control of both the U.S. Senate and the House of Representatives. Wall Street opened on…
- Tech policy coalition calls for new Congress to set AI safety standardsThe Chamber of Progress, a center-left tech industry policy coalition, is calling on the 2027 Democratic Congress to establish federal artificial intelligence safety standards. In a Nov. 4 memo to House and Senate Democratic leadership…
- Blue Wave, New AI Rules? What Democratic Control of Congress Means for AI RegulationKey Takeaways Oversight comes first. Expect hearings, document requests, and executive testimony on AI safety incidents, model testing, competition, and data practices beginning in early 2027. House Democratic committee leaders have…
- New York’s RAISE Act 2.0 would expand AI oversight, according to safety expertNew York lawmakers are proposing significant expansion of the state’s landmark artificial intelligence safety regulations, including new authority for state officials to restrict how much computing power major AI developers can use and…
- Can Democrats Slow The $800 Billion AI Boom?Part of our midterms guide. Start here: what the vote really changes for your money. AI data-center stocks fell on the result. On Wednesday, CoreWeave closed down about 10%, IREN about 11% and Nebius about 7%; power producers Vistra and…
- Midterm Results Set Stage for Tougher Cybersecurity and AI OversightDemocratic control of Congress is expected to bring closer scrutiny of federal cybersecurity staffing, government use of artificial intelligence (AI) surveillance and technology companies’ safety practices, shifting Washington’s technology…
- Pritzker pitches policy playbook for Democrat-controlled Congress(The Center Square) – Following the Democrats’ capture of a Congressional majority, Illinois Gov. J.B. Pritzker is calling on the new class and existing Democrats to take on a package of more than 200 policies he says will benefit Illinois…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions