How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.2median
-850
Median 26.2Middle half 23.1 – 29.4
Install
When will serious AI-incident reporting become U.S. law?
The odds
Nov 12, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 20273%
- Before Jul 1, 202733%▼ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 8% on Oct 19, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3% | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 2.0K | |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 33% | ▼ 1 | 30¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 125 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 56% | ▲ 1 | 53¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 23.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: AI-incident, Mandatory
Search ›- NIST Report Identifies AI Incident Response Gaps, Plans for New Cybersecurity GuidanceJoin government and industry executives at the Potomac Officers Club’s 2027 Artificial Intelligence Summit on March 18, 2027, to discuss developments shaping federal AI adoption, emerging technologies and the future of government AI…
- IBM Study: Eight in Ten EMEA Enterprises Escalate AI Incidents to Board or C-Suite as AI Agents Test Governance80% of surveyed executives in EMEA say an AI-related incident reached their board or C-suite in the past year, with only 40% changing AI governance policy or frameworks in response.75% of respondents expect AI agents to have some level of…
- InstaLILY Research Finds One in Six Leaders Across the Supply Chain Faced an AI Incident Involving Supplier or Customer DataSurvey of 250 industry leaders shows AI can access customer pricing and margins at 78% of their companies, as suppliers and customers ask how their data is protected. Trading Partners Are Bringing Data Protection Into Purchasing Decisions…
- AI Incident Reporting Moves Toward Center of Governance DebateA growing push for artificial intelligence (AI) incident reporting is giving Washington a practical starting point for AI oversight. Recent administration guidance, congressional requests and disclosure proposals point toward a system…
- Minnesota’s deer gun season opens Saturday, with mandatory chronic wasting disease testing in partCBS News Minnesota is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as WCCO-TV and channel 4, CBS News Minnesota offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Minnesota’s deer…
- Waste Tax Payment Made Mandatory Across PunjabFaizan Hashmi Published November 06, 2026 | 03:36 PM Citizens who fail to pay the waste tax will be unable to buy or sell property as authorities decide to stop issuing NOCs, while housing societies and towns will be exempt because their…
- Croatia introduces mandatory vaccination against satireNewsBar Croatia introduces mandatory vaccination against satire Croatia becomes the first country in the world to introduce mandatory vaccination against satire, media report. Unlike other vaccines, where an increasing number of people…
- Air Suvidha Form Mandatory for All India ArrivalsAll international travelers arriving to India now have to complete the Air Suvidha form. This includes all Indian passport holders, OCI cardholders, as well as foreign nationals. This form has become mandatory for health screening…
- DOL Finalizes Mandatory Electronic Filing for Administrative HearingsThe U.S. Department of Labor (DOL) has finalized a rule requiring electronic filing (e-filing) in proceedings before the Office of Administrative Law Judges (OALJ), marking a significant modernization of the agency’s hearing procedures…
- Auckland dodges lockdown; mandatory masks loomAuckland appears to have dodged another lockdown with Ministry of Health officials linking the latest community covid-19 case to the Defence Force cluster discovered last week. Minister for Covid-19 Response Chris Hipkins said Auckland and…
- The EU KIDS Act: From moderation to mandatory designThere is no size threshold and small and micro enterprises are not exempted; only a closed list of low-risk services (such as not-for-profit encyclopedias, educational services and services run by public authorities) falls outside. The…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions