How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
When will the U.S. enact an AI kill switch law?
The odds
45%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Jan 1, 20273%▼ 6
- Before Jul 1, 202726%▼ 6
- Before Jan 1, 202845%▼ 3
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 5% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 9, 3 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 9% → 3%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3% | ▼ 6 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 15.6K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 26% | ▼ 6 | 22¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 204 |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 45% | ▼ 3 | 41¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 101 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mandatory AI
Search ›- Nexus Mods Introduces Mandatory AI DisclosureMod authors will need to explain how they used AI, and players will get filters to hide AI-assisted content. The world's largest mod hub, Nexus Mods, shared new rules for AI-made mods. Under the new rules, the platform will accept mods…
- Attaullah Tarar calls for mandatory AI labelling, platform fact-checking & int’l convention on disinformationDr Suleri urges governments to maintain trust and credibility while protecting right to information ISLAMABAD, Nov 5 (SABAH): Federal Minister for Information and Broadcasting, Attaullah Tarar called for mandatory labelling of AI-generated…
- MeitY Proposes Mandatory AI Model Vetting Under New Training FrameworkIndia’s IT ministry has proposed an AI training framework requiring model verification before deployment to ensure safety standards. The draft Data Empowerment and Protection Architecture (DEPA) for AI Training, released for consultation…
- Nexus Mods Forces Mandatory AI Disclosures and Filters, Explains Why It Won't Ban AI ModsGenerative AI has taken over the modding scene, with modders mashing together existing games and using AI-assisted code to, for example, put the Nemesis system from Middle-earth: Shadow of Mordor into Rockstar's Red Dead Redemption 2…
- AI Delirium: Developers Reject Mandatory AI WorkflowsA growing backlash called AI Delirium is spreading through developer communities as engineers resist corporate pressure to integrate AI into every task. The trend underscores friction between management expectations for prompt-first…
- InterSpace Distribution Introduces Mandatory AI Disclosure and Country of Recording RequirementsMay 21, 2026Lagos, Nigeria / London, UK InterSpace Distribution, a leading independent music distribution and aggregation platform, today announced the introduction of new mandatory metadata requirements for all releases submitted to its…
- Nexus Mods introduces "mandatory" AI disclosures and lets users filter out machine-generated mods: "We are pro-human creativity""It should be out in the open, clearly labelled, and regulated according to the rules that we can implement on our platform" As AI-assisted development continues to accelerate in fan-driven dev communities, Nexus Mods has outlined an…
- Taiwan Audience Study Highlights Cross-Platform IP Opportunities as AI Raises New Risks for Content IndustryTaiwanese audiences are consuming entertainment across film, television, music, publishing and gaming, creating opportunities for cross-platform IP development, according to research presented by the Taiwan Creative Content Agency (TAICCA)…
- Democrats line up AI testing, liability and power-bill measures for the new CongressMLQ.ai Democrats line up AI testing, liability and power-bill measures for the new Congress - Chuck Schumer, expected to become Senate majority leader, named shielding consumers from data-center electricity costs as a priority 1. - Rep…
- Undisclosed AI Music: A QC Playbook for DistributorsUndisclosed AI music is a track made wholly or partly with generative AI that reaches a store without the AI declaration the store expects. For a distributor, it is a delivery problem first: the file clears intake, the metadata says…
- EPL Q2 Results: Profit rises 4% YoY to Rs 111 croreHow to link Aadhaar with Voter ID: Steps to apply online, through mobile app and check status. Is it mandatory? AI selloff drags Nikkei lower despite broad-based market gains WATCH: Lakers’ star Luka Doncic gets courtside fan kicked-out…
- Music Catalog Due Diligence AI Checks: Screen the Audio Before You CloseA catalog’s share of undisclosed AI-generated audio is now part of what it is worth. Music catalog due diligence AI checks exist to measure that share before you close, because the usual checklist of chain of title, registrations and…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions