Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
Install
When will Justice Alito retire from the Supreme Court? (Before Jul 1, 2027)
The odds
18%Before Jul 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20276%▲ 4
- Before Jul 1, 202718%▼ 2
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 9% on Oct 20, 6% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 22% → 12%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | <1% | 495.8K | ||||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 6% | ▲ 4 | 6¢ | 7¢ | $15.15 | 538.9K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 18% | ▼ 2 | 17¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 54.9K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Supreme Court, Justice Alito
Search ›- The Supreme Court could be poised to hobble the Trump resistanceThe Supreme Court’s decision to weigh nationwide injunctions could dramatically impact how Trump’s policies are applied across the country. The high court will hear arguments on nationwide injunctions in a special session on May 15. | J…
- South Carolina asks Supreme Court to allow anti-transgender school bathroom policyThe emergency appeal is the latest in a series of cases involving transgender issues to come before the high court. South Carolina is asking the Supreme Court to allow the state to enforce a ban on transgender students in public schools…
- Texas Supreme Court halts deposition in transgender mailers caseCBS News Texas is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KTVT and channel 11, CBS News Texas offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Texas Supreme Court halts…
- Colorado Supreme Court rules Amendment 87 will stay on ballot, votes will countUpdated on: October 30, 2026 / 1:27 PM MDT / CBS Colorado The Colorado Supreme Court has rejected a lawsuit that attempted to throw out voter signatures that put Amendment 87 on the ballot. Instead, the justices ruled that Amendment 87…
- Texas Supreme Court steps into trans mailers case, halting depositionUpdated on: October 30, 2026 / 2:13 PM CDT / CBS Texas The fight to find out who sent the transgender mailers to homes across the state hit a speedbump Friday when the Supreme Court of Texas issued an order pausing the deposition scheduled…
- Supreme Court denies South Carolina’s emergency request to enforce anti-transgender school bathroom policyThe justices, in an apparent 6-3 vote, said the decision was not a ruling on the merits of the case. 09/10/2025 5:45 PM EDT The Supreme Court has declined South Carolina’s request for an emergency order allowing the state to enforce a law…
- Georgia Supreme Court denies Colt Gray's request to appeal in Apalachee shooting caseOctober 30, 2026 / 9:26 AM EDT / CBS Atlanta The Georgia Supreme Court has denied Colt Gray's request to pursue an appeal in the Apalachee High School shooting case, according to court records. The court's Oct. 8 order rejected his…
- Supreme Court’s Blunder on Birthright Citizenship — July 2026 – Eagle Forum Education & LegalJohn & Andy Schlafly The Supreme Court just blundered badly on birthright citizenship, undermining the credibility of the Court while devaluing American citizenship. By a mere 5-4 majority, the Court declared a new constitutional right to…
- Colorado mom says kids denied $12K in preschool aid over Catholic faith as Supreme Court showdown loomsErika Nagle tells Fox News Digital that two of her children were denied thousands in preschool benefits because of their Catholic school choice, as the Supreme Court prepares to hear arguments Tuesday. A Colorado mother of three says her…
- Supreme Court Battle: Non-Citizen Voting!READ: https://www.judicialwatch.org/judicial-watch-and-allied-educational-foundation-ask-supreme-court-to-defend-arizonas-authority-to-verify-voter-citizenship/ Judicial Watch announced it filed an amici curiae (friends of the court) brief…
- Gun-Control Groups Ask Supreme Court To Reverse Landmark RulingTwo gun-control organizations called on the Supreme Court to use a case challenging laws banning modern semiautomatic firearms as an opportunity to overturn the court’s landmark Heller ruling. “Heller and its progeny are egregiously flawed…
- FL Supreme Court Disciplines 16 Attorneys, Disbars 3The Florida Supreme Court this week disciplined 16 attorneys across the Sunshine State, including three who were disbarred and 11 who were suspended. The Florida Bar said the disciplinary actions, issued between Sept. 24 and Oct. 29, also…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
- Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche4%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory4%▼ 1
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice3%
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day3%
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States2%
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices16%▼ 1
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals7%▼ 2
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
23%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar23%▼ 2
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions