Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
Install
DC Circuit rules for AP on Oval Office access before 2028?
The odds
19%chance▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 10% on Oct 19, 19% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 3, 4 PM ET19% → 27%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 19% | ▲ 1 | 15¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 2.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: DC Circuit, Oval Office
Search ›- Musk's son 'Lil X' steals spotlight in the Oval OfficeThe billionaire has brought his four-year-old to numerous Washington events. As camera crews and reporters crowded into the Oval Office on Tuesday, trying to focus on President Donald Trump and Elon Musk's first public comments on slashing…
- Fact Check: Does the clip show Trump smashing Oval Office furniture after midterm losses?WASHINGTON, DC: Several unverified posts and memes have flooded X and other social media platforms, mocking US President Donald Trump following Republicans' losses in the 2026 midterm elections. Amid the online buzz, a viral video…
- Donald Trump Brings Gold Curtains, Winston Churchill Bust to the Oval OfficeTrump sat in the Oval Office for the first time as president on Jan. 20. — -- The Trump administration's interior design changes to the Oval Office came into view for the first time Friday when the newly inaugurated president invited…
- Politico's Jonathan Martin Already Measuring Oval Office Drapes for DemocratsThe returns from the 2026 midterm elections had hardly finished being reported when Politico's senior political columnist, Jonathan Martin, let loose with an orgiastic burst of joy over what he considers to be the very favorable prospects…
- President Donald J. Trump meets with Stephen Hubbard in the Oval Office after he was recently released from a Russian prisonThe White House (.gov) President Donald J. Trump meets with Stephen Hubbard in the Oval Office after he was recently released from a Russian prison
- MS NOW, CNN and Politico ask judge to restore pool access, including to Oval Office and Air Force OneU.S. District Judge Timothy Kelly has already restored the three news organizations’ access to the White House grounds. Three news organizations whose access to the White House was restored, for now, after President Donald Trump revoked it…
- Trump set to decide South Africa’s $1.7 billion duty-free trade 17 months after tense Oval Office clashUS President Donald Trump is expected to decide whether South Africa will retain preferential access to the American market, placing approximately $1.7 billion (R28.3 billion) in duty-free exports at the centre of a widening dispute…
- 🤣 Marine One nearly DROWNED OUT President Trump's Oval Office event as it came in for a landing, and 47 couldn't have been more amused"Is that a helicopter?! Oh! Ooh! Do you want to see a nice helicopter?!""How do you like the helipad? See, that's landing right now. I'm going to have a helicopter.""Because of Halloween, we had to take a very long drive for the last four days getting it ready. So now we have a helicopter." 😆That's why we've been seeing 47 motorcading to the airportMarine One nearly DROWNED OUT President Trump's Oval Office event as it came in for a landing, and 47 couldn't have been more amused"Is that a helicopter?! Oh! Ooh! Do you want to see a nice helicopter?!""How do you like the helipad? See…
- Freed Russian prisoner Stephen Hubbard tells Trump ‘I wouldn’t have lasted another year,’ during emotional Oval Office visitWASHINGTON — President Trump on Friday hosted the recently released American inmate Stephen Hubbard at the White House — with the retired English teacher and veteran telling Trump he “wouldn’t have lasted another year” in Russian custody…
- Freed from Russia, Stephen Hubbard Told Trump in the Oval Office He ‘Wouldn’t Have Lasted Another Year’Updated 4 hours ago, October 31, 2026 When Stephen Hubbard visited the Oval Office on October 30, his son Joseph Coleman told President Donald Trump, “I was afraid we were going to lose him there.” The 74-year-old American teacher, freed…
- South Africa downplays AGOA blowSouth Africa moved to contain fears of major economic damage after the White House’s decision to exclude it from a US preferential trade program, saying its biggest mineral exports never relied on the duty-free program and the tariff…
- Widow of Airman Killed in Iran War Posts Vote for Democrat Doug JonesNov 03, 2026 at 05:17 PM EST Nov 03, 2026 at 05:34 PM EST The widow of an Air Force major who died during an Iran-related combat operation voted Tuesday for Democrat Doug Jones for Alabama governor and other candidates vowing to stop the…
Related markets
All supreme court & courts ›What cases will the Supreme Court agree to hear in 2026?
7%Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists
- Moylan v. Guam Society of Obstetrician and Gynecologists7%▼ 1
- Republican National Committee v. Eakin6%▼ 2
- Duncan v. Bonta6%
5 more
- Buenrostro-Mendez v. Blanche4%
- Norfolk Southern Railway v. Mallory4%▼ 1
- Bird v. Iowa Migrant Movement for Justice3%
- Pharmaceutical Research and Manufacturers of America v. O’Day3%
- Khalid Shaikh Mohammad v. United States2%
What will the Supreme Court look like at the end of Trump's term? (Jan 20, 2029)
75%6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals
- 6 Conservatives and 3 Liberals75%▲ 6
- Not nine justices16%▼ 1
- 7 Conservatives and 2 Liberals9%
2 more
- 9 Conservatives and 0 Liberals1%
- 8 Conservatives and 1 Liberals1%
SCOTUS accepts sports event contract case by...?
9%December 31
- October 31<1%▼ 1
- December 319%▼ 5
Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
25%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar25%▼ 1
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
- Peter Strzok7%
- Fani Willis7%
- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%▼ 1
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
- Mark Milley3%
- Bill Clinton3%
- Alvin Bragg3%
- E. Jean Carroll3%
- Chris Christie2%
- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
- Mark Kelly2%
- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions