Will Samuel Alito announce his retirement by...?
12%December 31
- June 30, 202712%▲ 1
- December 3112%
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Who will be arrested in 2026?
The odds
11%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar11%▼ 2
- John Brennan10%▼ 1
- Mahmoud Khalil7%▼ 1
- James Clapper5%▼ 3
- Loretta Lynch5%▲ 1
- Letitia James5%
- Benjamin Netanyahu4%
- Susan Rice4%
- Lisa Cook4%
- Lee Jae Myung4%
- José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero3%
- Lee Jun-seok3%▼ 1
13 more
- Anthony Fauci3%▲ 1
- Brandon Johnson3%
- Candace Owens3%
- Hillary Clinton3%
- John Kerry2%
- Adam Schiff2%▼ 2
- Gavin Newsom2%
- Barack Obama2%
- Bill Clinton2%
- Tom Homan2%
- Kash Patel2%
- Joe Biden1%
- Pam Bondi1%
How the odds have moved
Ilhan Omar: 41% on Oct 20, 11% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETIlhan Omar: 24% → 12%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
- Oct 23, 11 PM ETIlhan Omar: 31% → 39%
- Oct 21, 7 PM ETIlhan Omar: 43% → 32%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilhan Omar | 11% | ▼ 2 | 9¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 59.5K |
| John Brennan | 10% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 157.5K |
| Mahmoud Khalil | 7% | ▼ 1 | 5¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | 12.5K |
| James Clapper | 5% | ▼ 3 | 3¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 67.5K |
| Loretta Lynch | 5% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 8¢ | $12.66 | 8.8K |
| Letitia James | 5% | 5¢ | 5¢ | $19.61 | 164.7K | |
| Benjamin Netanyahu | 4% | 4¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | 13.5K | |
| Susan Rice | 4% | 2¢ | 6¢ | $18.18 | 14.1K | |
| Lisa Cook | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 35.0K | |
| Lee Jae Myung | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 4.2K | |
| José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 13.5K | |
| Lee Jun-seok | 3% | ▼ 1 | 1¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 3.9K |
| Anthony Fauci | 3% | ▲ 1 | 2¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | 209.7K |
| Brandon Johnson | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 4.2K | |
| Candace Owens | 3% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | 6.3K | |
| Hillary Clinton | 3% | 2¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 227.9K | |
| John Kerry | 2% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 7.0K | |
| Adam Schiff | 2% | ▼ 2 | 0¢ | 4¢ | $22.73 | 59.9K |
| Gavin Newsom | 2% | 1¢ | 4¢ | $27.78 | 54.8K | |
| Barack Obama | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 276.0K | |
| Bill Clinton | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $35.71 | 43.8K | |
| Tom Homan | 2% | 2¢ | 2¢ | $43.48 | 15.6K | |
| Kash Patel | 2% | 1¢ | 3¢ | $37.04 | 6.9K | |
| Joe Biden | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $52.63 | 10.2K | |
| Pam Bondi | 1% | 1¢ | 2¢ | $58.82 | 13.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Ilhan Omar, John Brennan, Mahmoud Khalil
Search ›- WATCH: Ilhan Omar RESURFACES at Somali mallRep. Ilhan Omar is seen strolling through Minneapolis’ largest Somali mall, surrounded by security guards, in her first public appearance since federal agents raided her Washington, D.C., home. WATCH: Ilhan Omar RESURFACES at Somali mall…
- DOJ moves to keep Ilhan Omar search warrant sealedFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on the Justice Department declining to unseal documents on the search warrant executed at Rep. Ilhan Omar's residence. DOJ moves to keep Ilhan Omar search warrant sealed Fox…
- FBI investigated Ilhan Omar over possible marriage fraud in 2016: ReportFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram discusses a New York Times report on a 2016 FBI investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar and questions surrounding her citizenship status. FBI investigated Ilhan Omar over possible marriage…
- Feds decline to unseal Rep Ilhan Omar search warrantFox News contributor Paul Mauro discusses the feds declining to release the search warrant in the investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., on 'The Story.' ... Feds decline to unseal Rep Ilhan Omar search warrant Fox News contributor…
- Obama admin first launched the investigation into Ilhan Omar's alleged brother marriageFederal investigators are examining allegations that Ilhan Omar misrepresented her identity on official documents. Rothman discusses claims that the lawmaker used an alias, pointing to her past campaign finance violations. The…
- Nearly 40 House Dems skip effort to end Ilhan Omar immigration probeLegal editor Kerri Urbahn analyzes a letter from 175 House Democrats, led by Rep. Pramila Jayapal, demanding the administration stop its investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar. Nearly 40 House Democrats appear to have shunned an effort by…
- Minnesota resident has STRONG message for Ilhan OmarA Minnesota resident shares blunt criticism of Ilhan Omar, raising questions about political division before delivering a pointed final message. Minnesota resident has STRONG message for Ilhan Omar A Minnesota resident shares blunt…
- Chad Pergram reports on Ilhan Omar facing immigration probeRepresentative Ilhan Omar faces a federal immigration probe as chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports from Capitol Hill. Voters in Minneapolis voice their frustration over her controversies, including a joint live stream…
- 175 House Democrats demand administration stop Rep. Ilhan Omar probeLegal editor Kerri Urbahn discusses a letter signed by 175 House Democrats demanding the administration stop its probe into Rep. Ilhan Omar. The discussion focuses on the potential political and legal implications of the investigation. 175…
- DOJ reportedly is seeking to keep Ilhan Omar’s search warrant sealedFox News legal analyst Gregg Jarrett discusses the investigation into Rep. Ilhan Omar, D-Minn., on ‘Hannity.’ ... DOJ reportedly is seeking to keep Ilhan Omar’s search warrant sealed Fox News legal analyst Gregg Jarrett discusses the…
- Dems accused of DUPING Americans over Ilhan Omar FBI searchA heated debate over Ilhan Omar's alleged home raid erupts as Dagen McDowell blasts Democrats and argues that FBI searches require judicial approval. Dems accused of DUPING Americans over Ilhan Omar FBI search A heated debate over Ilhan…
- House Democrats demand Trump admin end Ilhan Omar probeNearly 200 House Democrats are moving to shield Rep. Ilhan Omar from further investigation after federal investigators raided her Washington, D.C., home. House Democrats demand Trump admin end Ilhan Omar probe Nearly 200 House Democrats…
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Who will be charged with a federal crime in 2026?
23%Ilhan Omar
- Ilhan Omar23%▼ 2
- John Brennan12%▲ 1
- Miles Taylor9%▲ 1
40 more
- Dan J. Sullivan8%
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- Leon Black7%
- James Clapper6%▼ 2
- Letitia James6%▼ 1
- Hunter Biden6%
- Andrew Weissmann6%
- Reid Hoffman6%
- Cassidy Hutchinson6%▲ 1
- Keith Ellison5%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Kimberly Guilfoyle5%▼ 2
- Adam Schiff5%
- Lisa Monaco5%
- Joe Kent4%
- Jack Smith4%
- Chris Krebs4%
- Gustavo Petro4%
- Tim Walz4%▲ 1
- Elissa Slotkin4%
- Christopher Wray4%▼ 1
- Jacob Frey4%
- Gavin Newsom4%
- Jennifer Siebel Newsom4%▲ 1
- Liz Cheney3%▼ 1
- Mark Milley3%
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- Hillary Clinton2%
- Lisa Cook2%
- Tucker Carlson2%
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- Pam Bondi2%
- Barack Obama2%
- George Soros2%
- Jerome Powell1%
- Joe Biden1%
Any of the Cornell 7 charged with a felony sex crime?
28%chance
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions