Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/2 - 11/8)
193.3median
140230
Median 193.3Middle half 185.8 – 202.8
Install
Traffic through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait? (11/9 - 11/15)
The odds
192.7median
175240
Median 192.7Middle half 183.7 – 205
How the odds have moved
Median: 192.9 on Nov 9, 192.7 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 180 | 85% | ▲ 1 | 84¢ | 85¢ | $1.18 | 10.00 |
| Above 185 | 72% | ▼ 7 | 71¢ | 72¢ | $1.39 | 666 |
| Above 190 | 59% | ▲ 1 | 58¢ | 59¢ | $1.69 | 2.3K |
| Above 195 | 43% | ▼ 3 | 41¢ | 45¢ | $2.22 | 697 |
| Above 200 | 34% | ▼ 6 | 31¢ | 36¢ | $2.78 | 3.0K |
| Above 205 | 25% | ▼ 5 | 24¢ | 26¢ | $3.85 | 46.00 |
| Above 210 | 14% | ▲ 3 | 13¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 232 |
| Above 220 | 8% | 7¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | ||
| Above 230 | 4% | 3¢ | 4¢ | $25.00 | 2.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Mandeb Strait
Search ›- As Houthis Strike Saudi Arabia, Reports of Syrian Military Deployment Raise QuestionsCould Syrian soldiers soon be fighting in Yemen alongside Saudi-backed forces? Reports of a possible deployment have raised questions about Riyadh’s military strategy, Damascus’ regional ambitions, and whether foreign troops could make any…
- Somalia: Somaliland's Red Sea Security Role Highlighted At Washington ConferenceWashington, Nov 9 — Somaliland's coastal security efforts and Berbera's port and airport could make it an important partner in protecting Red Sea shipping routes, Somaliland's U.S. representative Bashir Goth and Atlantic Council expert J…
- Saudi Aramco Tower Damaged In Riyadh After Houthi Missile Attack, No Casualties Reported: What Happened?Several windows across multiple floors of Saudi oil giant Aramco’s corporate building in Riyadh were shattered on Sunday after debris from an attempted attack struck the structure, according to Saudi Arabia’s Energy Ministry. The incident…
- Houthi Attack Damages Aramco Building in Riyadh's Financial DistrictRIYADH—Windows were blown out across several floors of Saudi oil giant Aramco's corporate office in the heart of the financial district of the capital Riyadh on Sunday by what the energy ministry said was debris from an attempt to attack…
- India Evacuates 19 Seafarers Stranded In Yemen For Two Weeks, All Safe And Returning HomeIndia has evacuated 19 Indian seafarers stranded in Yemen's Hodeidah and Sana'a for nearly two weeks, with all reported safe and on their way back home amid continuing security concerns in the Red Sea region India evacuated 19 Indian…
- Houthi attack damages Aramco building in RiyadhWindows have been blown out across several floors of oil giant Aramco's office in Riyadh from an attempt to attack the building, Saudi Arabia's energy minister says. The ministry said damage to the Aramco Tower was limited and there were…
- Houthi Attack Damages Aramco Headquarters in Saudi Arabia’s RiyadhHome » International » Houthi Attack Damages Aramco Headquarters in Saudi Arabia’s Riyadh Saudi oil giant Aramco’s corporate headquarters credit: AFP Rabat – A Houthi missile attack on Riyadh damaged Saudi oil giant Aramco’s corporate…
- Houthi missile damages Saudi Aramco Tower in Riyadh in fresh attackA huge skyscraper in Saudi Arabia's capital Riyadh has been damaged after an air strike by Iran-backed Houthi rebels. Windows were blown out on several floors of the building owned by a Saudi oil giant, Aramco, in the financial district of…
- Yemeni armed forces liberate strategic areas overlooking Bab al-Mandeb StraitAhlulBayt News Agency: Yemeni armed forces have liberated several strategic areas which overlook the Bab al-Mandeb Strait from the control of Saudi-backed forces. Yemen’s Defense Ministry said on Friday that the country’s armed forces…
- Syrian-Saudi defense agreement reinforces growing ties amid Houthi threatSyria and Saudi Arabia signed a defense cooperation agreement Wednesday during Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa’s visit to Riyadh, expanding their growing partnership as Saudi Arabia seeks regional military support against attacks by…
- Saudi airstrikes in Yemen leave 3 dead, including 2 childrenSaudi airstrikes have killed three people, including two children, in Yemen’s Taiz province, according to Anees al Asbahi, a spokesperson for the Houthi-run health ministry. In a post on X on Tuesday, Al-Asbahi said another two other…
- Airstrike kills 22 people near Yemen's capital, Houthi official saysPublished - November 07, 2026 06:59 pm IST - Cairo Airstrikes hit homes in a village near Yemen's capital, Sanaa, on Saturday (November 7, 2026), killing at least 22 people and wounding 30 others, mostly women and children, a spokesman for…
Related markets
All world leaders ›When will traffic at the Strait of Hormuz return to normal?
Nov 16, 2027even chance by
- Before Dec 1, 20264%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 20278%▲ 2
- Before Feb 1, 202713%▲ 2
13 more
- Before Mar 1, 202714%▼ 3
- Before Apr 1, 202723%▼ 2
- Before May 1, 202725%▼ 2
- Before Jun 1, 202735%▲ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202739%
- Before Aug 1, 202740%▼ 1
- Before Sep 1, 202742%▼ 1
- Before Oct 1, 202746%
- Before Nov 1, 202749%
- Before Dec 1, 202752%▲ 3
- Before Jan 1, 202856%▲ 2
- Before Jul 1, 202866%▲ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202970%
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)
193.4median
160230
Median 193.4Middle half 188.7 – 199.4
Traffic through the Panama Canal? (11/2 - 11/8)
191.7median
160230
Median 191.7Middle half 187.3 – 195.6
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/2 - 11/8)
299.8median
250340
Median 299.8Middle half 288.1 – 309.8
Traffic through the Suez Canal? (11/9 - 11/15)
292.4median
250340
Median 292.4Middle half 282 – 304.9
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions