Which bills will become law in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › Congress Closes Jan 1, 2027 · $236 today · $52K traded · $18.2K at stake · prices read 29 min ago

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The odds

39%Export-control chip security
  • Export-control chip security39%▼ 1
  • Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions24%
  • AI-chip export licensing18%▲ 2
  • Data center utility cost protection18%▲ 4
  • E15 year-round sales17%▲ 1
  • Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act14%▼ 1
  • ADS-B revenue-use restriction11%▼ 5
  • Protect College Sports Act10%▼ 2
  • FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years)6%▼ 1
  • Critical-minerals stockpile6%
  • ROTOR Act6%
  • Railway safety bill6%▲ 1
18 more
  • Dignity Act6%▲ 1
  • Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty6%
  • JAWBONE Act6%▲ 1
  • Film/TV production expensing5%
  • Jewish American security5%
  • NO FAKES Act5%▼ 3
  • Credit-card routing competition4%▼ 1
  • White House ballroom funding4%▲ 1
  • $2.50 Coin4%
  • Surface transportation reauthorization4%▼ 1
  • Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee4%
  • Insulin cost cap4%▲ 1
  • DEFIANCE Act3%
  • SHOWER Act3%▼ 1
  • Trump Airport3%
  • SELF DRIVE Act2%▼ 1
  • Smithsonian Women’s History Museum2%▼ 1
  • Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday2%

How the odds have moved

Export-control chip security: 28% on Oct 20, 39% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Export-control chip security 39% ▼ 1 38¢ 40¢ $2.50 16.9K
Defense-contractor stock-buyback restrictions 24% 21¢ 26¢ $3.85 5.3K
AI-chip export licensing 18% ▲ 2 16¢ 19¢ $5.26 14.5K
Data center utility cost protection 18% ▲ 4 16¢ 19¢ $5.26 18.5K
E15 year-round sales 17% ▲ 1 15¢ 18¢ $5.56 31.5K
Hot Rotisserie Chicken Act 14% ▼ 1 11¢ 17¢ $5.88 32.1K
ADS-B revenue-use restriction 11% ▼ 5 7¢ 15¢ $6.67 1.1K
Protect College Sports Act 10% ▼ 2 7¢ 12¢ $8.33 58.3K
FISA Section 702 reauthorization (2 years) 6% ▼ 1 6¢ 7¢ $14.71 166.4K
Critical-minerals stockpile 6% 5¢ 8¢ $12.82 15.7K
ROTOR Act 6% 4¢ 9¢ $11.49 14.9K
Railway safety bill 6% ▲ 1 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 9.3K
Dignity Act 6% ▲ 1 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 18.0K
Fort Bragg → Fort Liberty 6% 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 9.2K
JAWBONE Act 6% ▲ 1 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 2.0K
Film/TV production expensing 5% 2¢ 9¢ $11.76 16.5K
Jewish American security 5% 4¢ 6¢ $16.67 7.0K
NO FAKES Act 5% ▼ 3 3¢ 6¢ $16.67 2.7K
Credit-card routing competition 4% ▼ 1 4¢ 5¢ $20.41 21.4K
White House ballroom funding 4% ▲ 1 3¢ 5¢ $20.00 13.2K
$2.50 Coin 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.41 23.9K
Surface transportation reauthorization 4% ▼ 1 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 15.8K
Electric vehicle Highway Trust Fund fee 4% 1¢ 6¢ $16.67 8.1K
Insulin cost cap 4% ▲ 1 2¢ 5¢ $20.00 6.5K
DEFIANCE Act 3% 2¢ 5¢ $20.83 19.2K
SHOWER Act 3% ▼ 1 1¢ 5¢ $19.61 22.4K
Trump Airport 3% 2¢ 4¢ $28.57 36.4K
SELF DRIVE Act 2% ▼ 1 0¢ 4¢ $27.03 34.4K
Smithsonian Women’s History Museum 2% ▼ 1 1¢ 3¢ $35.71 9.9K
Trump's Birthday as a federal holiday 2% 0¢ 3¢ $34.48 25.8K

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

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