CA-07 House winner? (2026)
98%Doris Matsui
- Doris Matsui98%▲ 1
- Mai Vang2%
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CA-04 House winner? (2026)
The odds
96%Eric Jones
- Eric Jones96%▲ 2
- Mike Thompson4%▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Eric Jones: 24% on Oct 20, 96% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 4, 11 PM ETEric Jones: 70% → 95%
No headline about it in the hours around this move.
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Jones | 96% | ▲ 2 | 96¢ | 97¢ | $1.03 | 160.3K |
| Mike Thompson | 4% | ▼ 1 | 4¢ | 5¢ | $20.00 | 124.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: CA- House, Eric Jones, Mike Thompson
Search ›- CA-4 race remains close between Eric Jones, Mike ThompsonCBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. CA-4 race remains…
- Election results: Eric Jones clings to lead over Rep. Mike Thompson in tight 4th Congressional District raceLittle changed in the 4th Congressional District vote margin over the past few days, meaning a lot could soon change for political representation across a swath of Northern California. After several counties released a new round of ballot…
- Eric Jones leads big in new parts of Congressional districtEric Jones, the Democrat trying to unseat 14-term Rep. Mike Thompson in the California 4th District, arrives with his family at the Napa County Registrar’s Office to cast his ballot on Tuesday, Nov. 3. In a battle of Democrats, challenger…
- Eric Jones takes slight lead over Mike Thompson in 4th Congressional District raceJones, of Napa, is challenging Thompson, a longtime congressmember whose district shifted and swelled following Proposition 50. Published on November 3, 2026 Eric Jones votes on Nov. 2, 2026. Jones is challenging longtime Rep. Mike…
- Early Results Show Rep. Mike Thompson in Tight Race With Challenger Eric JonesRep. Mike Thompson is locked in a close race with former venture capitalist Eric Jones in the redrawn 4th Congressional District. Thompson, a 14-term Democrat, is attempting to fight off the most expensive challenge of his career from a…
- See to Eric Jones, candidate for the 4th Congressional District, speak at election party(Video) Sacramento Bee
- With a wet winter on horizon, San Francisco giving out free sandbags to residentsCBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. With a wet winter…
- Saturday evening First Alert weather forecast - November 7, 2026CBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Saturday evening…
- First Alert Weather Saturday morning forecast 11-7-26CBS News Bay Area is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KPIX-TV and channel 5, CBS News Bay Area offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. First Alert…
- [Updated - Nov. 2] Following the congressional cash: Mike Thompson vs. Eric JonesU.S. House · California District 4 Follow the money: campaign fundraising, selected donors and outside spending. Updated Nov. 2, 2026. Figures are reported filings, not live balances. The congressional district includes all of Napa…
- Yolo County General Election: Willowgrove approved by voters; Jones leads Thompson; Vega wins supervisor seatLeft: Rep. Mike Thompson, Right: Eric Jones Judy Ennis has announced her candidacy for the District 1 seat on the Davis City Council for the November 2026 election. Davis City Council member Gloria Partida Three days after the Nov. 3…
- Calistoga flood map changes to be discussed Nov. 16Napa County is encouraging property owners and residents in and around Calistoga to review preliminary federal flood maps and attend a public meeting Monday, Nov. 16, to learn how proposed changes could affect their properties. The meeting…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions