NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%
- Greg Murphy16%
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How many House seats will Democrats win in California? (Nov 3, 2026)
The odds
48median
4450
Median 48Middle half 48 – 48
How the odds have moved
Median: 48 on Oct 20, 48 now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Below 44 | <1% | 0¢ | 3.7K | |||
| 44 | <1% | 0¢ | 7.1K | |||
| 45 | <1% | 0¢ | 7.1K | |||
| 46 | <1% | 1¢ | 14.5K | |||
| 47 | <1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 7.8K | ||
| 48 | 97% | ▲ 3 | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 26.0K |
| 49 | 2% | ▼ 2 | 1¢ | 3¢ | $31.25 | 5.9K |
| 50 and above | <1% | 0¢ | 4.2K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House, California
Search ›- WATCH LIVE: Top Democrats hold 'Stop the Power Grab' rally in CaliforniaXavier Becerra headlines "Stop the Power Grab" rally with Gov. Gavin Newsom, Sen. Alex Padilla, Sen. Adam Schiff and special guests in Los Angeles, California. WATCH LIVE: Top Democrats hold 'Stop the Power Grab' rally in California Xavier…
- The final House battleground map looks great for Democrats. Watch these races.Breaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. In the final week of…
- Steve Hilton rallies at 'symbol of 16 years of Democrat failure' in closing days of California raceRepublican California gubernatorial candidate Steve Hilton rallied Sunday in Pacific Palisades, a Los Angeles neighborhood devastated by the January 2025 wildfires, blaming Democratic leadership for the destruction and slow recovery just…
- How House Democrats' 'deterrence message' on Trump jobs could backfireFormer DOJ official Abhi Kambli says Democrats’ calls to hold Trump staffers accountable could make future investigations look punitive rather than for legislative functions, potentially chilling congressional oversight. Sen. Elissa…
- House Democrats defend Rep. Ilhan Omar amid federal investigationFox News' Madeleine Rivera reports on House Democrats calling the raid on Rep. Ilhan Omar's home politically motivated. House Democrats defend Rep. Ilhan Omar amid federal investigation Fox News' Madeleine Rivera reports on House Democrats…
- Top Democrats are fighting a billionaire tax in California. Their voters are on the other sideMidway through this summer, a high-quality poll found that Democrats in California were overwhelmingly in favor of the upcoming ballot measure for a one-time 5% tax on billionaire wealth. The ratio was more than 4 to 1. But the state’s…
- Even if the billionaire tax fails, California faces looming tech revoltProposition 40 — the “billionaire tax” — is struggling in the polls. Whether it passes or not, the real question is why it ever came up and gained considerable support. The reason is clear: California’s neo-feudal system is not working for…
- Newsom proposes $1 billion California film and TV tax creditThe proposal comes a year after more than doubling California's tax credit program for the state's embattled industry. Gavin Newsom speaks at a campaign event ahead of the midterms on Sunday in Hollywood. | Jill Connelly/AP 11/02/2026…
- Massachusetts has a warning for California and Washington votersBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. A government can tax…
- DAVID MARCUS: California transplants in Texas are voting Democrat and they see no irony in itIn McKinney, Texas, California transplants explain why they're voting Democrat despite leaving a blue state, as Republicans fear a political shift. McKinney, Texas, is ground zero for the migration of voters from California to Texas over…
- DOJ asks for Supreme Court to intervene on California ballot demandsThe U.S. Supreme Court in Washington, DC, on Oct. 14, 2026. Saul Loeb/AFP via Getty Images hide caption With just a day to go before Election Day on Nov. 3, the Department of Justice is asking the U.S. Supreme Court to wade into its feud…
- Texas House Democrats say they'll appeal $450,000+ fines for summer quorum breakUpdated on: January 21, 2026 / 3:58 AM CST / CBS Texas Several Texas House Democrats have less than a month to appeal fines of over $9,000 each for leaving the state for two weeks over the summer to block a controversial redistricting…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions