Who will announce a California departure in 2026?

Kalshi Politics › States & cities Closes Dec 31 · $92 today · $1.8K traded · $642 at stake · prices read 3 h ago

Embed

The odds

6%Chamath Palihapitiya
  • Chamath Palihapitiya6%
  • Palmer Luckey5%
  • Larry Page5%▼ 14
  • Mark Zuckerberg5%
  • Peter Thiel4%
  • Marc Andreessen4%
  • Jensen Huang4%

How the odds have moved

Chamath Palihapitiya: 9% on Oct 20, 6% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Chamath Palihapitiya 6% 3¢ 10¢ $10.20 2.3K
Palmer Luckey 5% 1¢ 9¢ $10.87 971
Larry Page 5% ▼ 14 4¢ 7¢ $14.29 7.9K
Mark Zuckerberg 5% 3¢ 7¢ $13.70 10.9K
Peter Thiel 4% 2¢ 6¢ $15.63 10.3K
Marc Andreessen 4% 1¢ 7¢ $14.49 3.2K
Jensen Huang 4% 2¢ 5¢ $20.41 486

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: California, Chamath Palihapitiya, Palmer Luckey

Search ›

No recent headlines name this market's subject.

Related markets

All states & cities ›

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 2 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions