Which jurisdictions will drop Flock before Feb 2027?
86%New Bedford, MA
- New Bedford, MA86%▲ 1
- Richmond, CA64%▲ 1
- Boulder, CO59%▲ 1
2 more
- Atlanta, GA39%▲ 1
- Binghamton, NY38%▼ 1
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Which states will join the National Popular Vote Compact? (Before Nov 7, 2028)
The odds
57%Wisconsin
- Wisconsin57%▲ 1
- Arizona56%▲ 8
- Michigan48%▲ 1
- Nevada36%▲ 1
- Pennsylvania26%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Wisconsin: 15% on Nov 6, 57% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wisconsin | 57% | ▲ 1 | 54¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 2.3K |
| Arizona | 56% | ▲ 8 | 53¢ | 60¢ | $1.67 | 4.5K |
| Michigan | 48% | ▲ 1 | 43¢ | 52¢ | $1.92 | 2.4K |
| Nevada | 36% | ▲ 1 | 31¢ | 40¢ | $2.50 | 2.3K |
| Pennsylvania | 26% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | 38.00 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: National Popular Vote Compact
Search ›- The Left is Already Claiming That Democrats Have Enough Control to Get Rid of the Electoral CollegeWith the Democrat sweep of the House and Senate on Tuesday, leftists are already claiming that Democrats will have enough control to end the Electoral College, one of their long term goals for years. They would love nothing more than for…
- National popular vote indirectly on the midterm ballot(The Center Square) - The 2026 midterm elections could allow states across the country to form a coalition that alters future presidential elections. The National Popular Vote Interstate Compact, first introduced in 2006, has picked up…
- DSA’s multi-sided plan of attack going into 2027-2028The DSA is laying a multi-sided trap for 2028. On one side, they plan to have street riots break out like in France. On the other, they’re planning backdoor legal games in statehouses. And the midterms are just the beginning…
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All states & cities ›Will California start laying high-speed rail track in 2026?
55%chance
Will NYC ban horse-drawn carriages in 2026?
98%chance▲ 1
Manhattan congestion-zone vehicle entries in 2026?
172.32Mmedian
165.00M195.00M
Median 172.32MMiddle half 170.28M – 174.35M
Who will announce a California departure in 2026?
6%Chamath Palihapitiya
- Chamath Palihapitiya6%
- Palmer Luckey5%
- Larry Page5%▼ 14
4 more
- Mark Zuckerberg5%
- Peter Thiel4%
- Marc Andreessen4%
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Will any state enact a data center moratorium law? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
May 1, 2027even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 202726%▲ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202763%▲ 2
- Before Jan 1, 202894%
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions