How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.3median
-850
Median 26.3Middle half 23.1 – 29.5
Install
Will the carried interest loophole be closed?
The odds
Dec 18, 2029even chance by
- Before Jan 1, 20275%
- Before Jan 1, 202818%
- Before Jan 1, 202926%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 203051%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 5% on Oct 19, 5% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $14.29 | 2.00 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 18% | 14¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 310 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2029 | 26% | ▲ 1 | 22¢ | 30¢ | $3.33 | |
| Before Jan 1, 2030 | 51% | ▲ 1 | 47¢ | 55¢ | $1.82 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Internal Revenue Code
Search ›- About Form 1024-A, Application for Recognition of Exemption Under Section 501(c)(4) of the Internal Revenue CodeForm 1024-A must be submitted electronically through Pay.gov. You can access the most recent revision of the form at Pay.gov. To submit Form 1024-A, you must: Instructions for Form 1024-A (Print version PDF) All Form 1024-A revisions…
- Faith coalition urges Newsom to opt California into Trump’s school choice programA coalition of 121 California faith leaders, educators and school choice advocates is urging Gov. Gavin Newsom to opt into President Donald Trump’s Education Freedom Tax Credit (EFTC) program. In an Oct. 23 letter obtained by The…
- A Dead Taxpayer’s $4,000 Refund Goes Nowhere Until Someone Files Form 1310. The Three-Year Clock Runs Whether or Not the Family Knows the Refund ExistsA son found his late father's missing tax paperwork in a filing cabinet and did everything right once he did. The IRS still owed money, and one date he never knew about had already decided whether he could claim it. Tax Master desk…
- Can You Claim Crypto Scam Losses on Your Taxes?Originally published on WarnScams on November 8, 2026. This is a republication of that article — the original on warnscams.com is the canonical version. Sometimes, yes — but US tax law draws one hard line, and it is not the line most…
- DOE Releases Emissions Value Request Process for 45Z Fuel Production CreditThe U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announced on October 16, 2026, the availability of the Emissions Value Request (EVR) Process in support of the U.S. Department of the Treasury’s (Treasury) and Internal Revenue Service’s (IRS)…
- 529 Funds and a Roth IRA: How to Use One to Jumpstart the OtherWant to boost your retirement savings? You can roll over unused funds from your 529 plan into a Roth IRA tax-free, as long as certain conditions are met. Wondering what to do with the cash in your 529 plan? You're not alone. As of June…
- Why businesses need to know about the Voluntary Classification Settlement ProgramWith a gutted workforce, reduced enforcement funds, an ever-expanding tax gap and mounting deficits, the IRS still needs to collect revenue, and it will look first for low hanging fruit. Worker classification is a prime candidate. Common…
- Spokane Public Schools asks Gov. Bob Ferguson to reject federal voucher programThe SPS Board of Directors urged Gov. Bob Ferguson to keep Washington out of a federal tax credit scholarship program. SPOKANE, Wash. — The Spokane Public Schools Board of Directors urged Gov. Bob Ferguson in a November 2, 2026, letter to…
- Fidelity and Schwab Won’t Send a Dollar of Your 401(k) RMD to Charity. The Tax-Free QCD Only Works From an IRA, and the Year You Roll Over to Get It, That Year’s RMD Can’t Move With ItRolling a 401(k) into an IRA unlocks the tax-free charity gift, but one year's required withdrawal gets stuck behind. Before you move a dollar, find out what that stranded payment can cost in taxes and Medicare premiums. Tax Master desk…
- Qualified Opportunity ZonesThe Department of the Treasury manages federal finances, collects taxes and duties, enforces finance and tax laws, and protects the nation's financial systems. Official websites use .gov Secure .gov websites use HTTPS Taxpayers who make…
- What is the qualified business income deduction, and how does it work for physicians?Physician practices are a specified service trade or business under Section 199A. Here's how the 20% QBI deduction phases out, with 2026 IRS thresholds. The qualified business income (QBI) deduction lets owners of sole proprietorships…
- BIR Letter of Authority (LOA) Explained: 2026 Guide for TaxpayersRevenue officers cannot examine your books on their own initiative. Section 13 of the National Internal Revenue Code (NIRC) allows a revenue officer to examine taxpayers only "pursuant to a Letter of Authority issued by the Revenue…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions