Will China abolish birth limits?

Kalshi Politics › World leaders For Jul 8 · $1.7K traded · $510 at stake · prices read 50 min ago

The odds

51%Before 2030

Before 203051%
Before 202932%▲ 1
Before 202823%▲ 1
Before 20274%

How the odds have moved

Before 2030: 59% on Oct 20, 51% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before 2030	51%		51¢	61¢	$1.64	2.4K
Before 2029	32%	▲ 1	32¢	41¢	$2.44	690
Before 2028	23%	▲ 1	23¢	31¢	$3.23	315
Before 2027	4%			9¢	$11.11	415

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan, People's Republic of China

Search ›

President Xi Jinping Appoints New Ambassadors_Consulate-General of the People's Republic of China in Cape Towncapetown.china-consulate.gov.cn · 4 days agocapetown.china-consulate.gov.cn President Xi Jinping Appoints New Ambassadors Recently, President of the People’s Republic of China Xi Jinping announced the appointment of the following new Ambassadors in line with decisions adopted by the…
President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with Gabonese President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema_Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Republic of South Africa驻南非使馆 · 3 days agoOn the afternoon of November 6, 2026, President Xi Jinping held talks with President Brice Clotaire Oligui Nguema of the Gabonese Republic, who is on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. The two leaders…
President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with Sultan Haitham of Oman_Permanent Mission of the People's Republic of China to the UN常驻联合国代表团 · 4 days agoOn the morning of November 2, President Xi Jinping held talks with Sultan Haitham of Oman, who is on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. After the talks, the two heads of state jointly witnessed the signing…
President Xi Jinping Holds Talks with Sultan Haitham of Oman_Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the United States of America中华人民共和国驻美利坚合众国大使馆 · 4 days agoOn the morning of November 2, President Xi Jinping held talks with Sultan Haitham of Oman, who is on a state visit to China, at the Great Hall of the People in Beijing. After the talks, the two heads of state jointly witnessed the signing…
Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Guo Jiakun’s Regular Press Conference on November 6, 2026_Embassy of the People's Republic of China in the Republic of South Africa驻南非使馆 · 4 days agoChina will work with relevant parties to make the CIIE successful, fully leverage the four major platforms of international procurement, investment promotion, people-to-people exchanges, and openness and cooperation, and bring more…
Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang faces bipartisan congressional scrutiny over reported China spy linkCNBC · 32 h agoLawmakers from both sides of the aisle are ramping up calls for investigations into reports of Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang's relationship with an alleged Chinese spy. Some are also questioning what the Trump administration knew about the…
Taiwan detains a Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionThe Washington Post · 41 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Authorities in Taiwan…
Foreign ministry condemns China-Gabon statement on Taiwan sovereignty | Taiwan News | Nov. 7, 2026 15:11taiwannews.com.tw · 2 days agoNov. 7, 2026 15:11 TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The foreign ministry on Saturday condemned China for making false claims about Taiwan's sovereignty in a joint statement with Gabon, CNA reported. The statement was issued Friday after talks…
Two Chinese nationals sentenced for acting as agents of the People's Republic of ChinaJust The News · 6 days agoProsecutors say that the two men carried out clandestine intelligence activities in the United States that included facilitating secret “dead drop” cash payments in exchange for information related to the national security of the United…
Meeting between H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, Chairperson of the African Union Commission, and H.E. Jiang Feng, Ambassador of the People's Republic of China to the Federal Democratic Republic of Ethiopia and Permanent Representative to the African UnionAfrican Union · 5 days agoDeepening the Africa-China Partnership in Support of Agenda 2063 The Chairperson of the African Union Commission, H.E. Mahmoud Ali Youssouf, highlighted the value of the longstanding and mutually beneficial partnership between the People’s…
Nvidia's Huang is asked to brief Congress on reported Chinese spy relationshipCNBC · 4 days agoThree House Republican committee leaders asked Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang to sit for a closed-door briefing on his relationship with a tech executive reportedly identified as a Chinese intelligence asset. "Recent reports raise significant…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onthe government of the People's Republic of China

MeasuredJul 8, 2026 10:00 AM ET

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$1.7K (3,862 contracts)

This week$39

At stake$510

In the news949 headlines today, 5,000 this week

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If People's Republic of China agrees to or announces the formal abolition of all nationwide numerical limits on the number of children an individual or couple may have before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions