Will China obtain an EUV machine? (Before Jan 1, 2030)

Kalshi Politics › World leaders Closes Dec 31, 2029 · $676 traded · $136 at stake · prices read 10 h ago

The odds

Oct 25, 2028even chance by

Before Jan 1, 20279%
Before Jan 1, 202831%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 202955%▲ 1
Before Jan 1, 203070%▲ 1

How the odds have moved

Before Jan 1, 2027: 7% on Oct 19, 9% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Before Jan 1, 2027	9%		5¢	13¢	$7.69	925
Before Jan 1, 2028	31%	▲ 1	26¢	35¢	$2.86	228
Before Jan 1, 2029	55%	▲ 1	50¢	59¢	$1.69	849
Before Jan 1, 2030	70%	▲ 1	66¢	74¢	$1.35	86.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: China, Taiwan

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Taiwan detains a Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionThe Washington Post · 41 h agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Authorities in Taiwan…
Taiwan closes Papua New Guinea office amid China pressureintellinews.com · 46 h agoTaiwan will close its representative office in Papua New Guinea and bring home every staff member assigned there, Focus Taiwan reported on November ...
Former NCT Member Lucas Wong Makes Acting Debut in Taiwanese Folk-Music Drama ‘A Time’ With Jerry Yan, Ning Chang at Taiwan Creative Content FestVariety · 45 h agoTaiwanese director Tsao Jui-yuan unveiled his new drama series “A Time,” rooted in Taiwan’s campus folk music movement of the 1970s, at the Taiwan Creative Content Fest (TCCF). Tsao, known for “Crystal Boys,” “A Touch of Green” and…
Foreign ministry condemns China-Gabon statement on Taiwan sovereignty | Taiwan News | Nov. 7, 2026 15:11taiwannews.com.tw · 2 days agoNov. 7, 2026 15:11 TAIPEI (Taiwan News) — The foreign ministry on Saturday condemned China for making false claims about Taiwan's sovereignty in a joint statement with Gabon, CNA reported. The statement was issued Friday after talks…
Chang Chen Urges Emerging Taiwanese Actors to ‘Be Like Water’ at Taiwan Creative Content Fest Golden Horse ShowcaseVariety · 3 days agoChang Chen, chair of the Taipei Golden Horse Film Festival Executive Committee and last year’s Golden Horse best leading actor winner for “Lucky Lu,” advised six of Taiwan’s rising performers on working across different film sets at a…
Taiwan detains Communist Party leader over alleged Chinese sponsorship in electionThe Hindu · 40 h agoUpdated - November 08, 2026 03:22 pm IST - Taipei Authorities in Taiwan detained the leader of the island's Taiwan People's Communist Party, accusing him of running as a candidate for borough chief under the direction and sponsorship of…
US cites China in PNG closure of Taiwan site - Taipei Timestaipeitimes.com · 2 days agoThe US government has expressed concern over the closure of Taiwan’s representative office in Papua New Guinea (PNG) under pressure from the PNG government, saying that the incident is another example of Beijing’s intimidation of Taiwan…
US midterm elections: What the results mean for mainland China, Taiwan and foreign policySouth China Morning Post · 5 days agoSouth China Morning Post US midterm elections: What the results mean for mainland China, Taiwan and foreign policy SCMP’s US deputy bureau chief Mark Magnier breaks down what the Democrats taking Congress means, from a resurgence in Taiwan…
China & Taiwan Update, November 6, 2026aei.org · 3 days agoData Cutoff: November 5, 2026 PRC Cognitive Warfare. The PRC’s decision not to announce this major military exercise is a notable deviation that may be intended to create the impression that the PLA can isolate Taiwan at will. The PRC aims…
Is War Between China and Taiwan Coming Soon?NTD · 3 days ago2027 could be one of the most consequential years in recent memory. What would you like to watch today? Is War Between China and Taiwan Coming Soon? High-Ranking US and Chinese Officials Discuss Trade; Is War Between China and Taiwan…
Taiwan Receives Three More US F-16V Fighters as China Tensions Persistarabtimes · 40 h agoTAIPEI, Nov 8: Taiwan received a second batch of three newly manufactured F-16V Block 70 fighter jets from the United States on Sunday, bringing the total number of aircraft delivered under its latest ... Taiwan Receives Three More US…
Taiwan detects 4 Chinese military aircraft, 8 ships around island in 24 hoursThe Times of India · 47 h agoTaiwan's Ministry of National Defence (MND) said it detected four sorties of Chinese military aircraft, six vessels belonging to the people's liberation army navy (PLAN) and two official ships operating around the island during a 24-hour…

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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 5 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onSemafor, ABC, Bloomberg

Trading closesDec 31, 2029 11:59 PM ET

Traded$676 (2,088 contracts)

This week$22

At stake$136

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If China obtains or develops a functional extreme ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine that is capable of patterning semiconductor wafers in a fabrication facility is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

Kalshi is a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; its money is counted in contracts, shown here as dollars at their price. Polymarket counts dollars. ForecastEx is Interactive Brokers' exchange, regulated by the CFTC; its contracts too are shown as dollars at their price. Crypto.com lists its markets on Crypto.com | Derivatives North America, a U.S. exchange regulated by the CFTC; it reports the dollars traded. Where more than one asks the same question, each is shown, never averaged.

Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions