How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Who will testify in front of Congress in 2026?
The odds
19%Sam Altman
- Sam Altman19%
- Mark Zuckerberg13%
- Shou Zi Chew9%
- Jerome Powell7%▲ 3
- James Donaldson7%
- Jelly Roll6%
- Kamala Harris6%
- Joe Biden6%
- Anthony Fauci5%
- Jon Stewart4%
- Taylor Swift4%▼ 4
- Ghislaine Maxwell4%
1 more
- Barack Obama3%
How the odds have moved
Sam Altman: 13% on Oct 20, 19% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Oct 25, 9 PM ETSam Altman: 11% → 17%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Altman | 19% | 15¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 5.3K | |
| Mark Zuckerberg | 13% | 10¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 10.7K | |
| Shou Zi Chew | 9% | 5¢ | 12¢ | $8.33 | 7.6K | |
| Jerome Powell | 7% | ▲ 3 | 7¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 12.3K |
| James Donaldson | 7% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 983 | |
| Jelly Roll | 6% | 5¢ | 7¢ | $14.49 | 874 | |
| Kamala Harris | 6% | 4¢ | 9¢ | $11.76 | 236 | |
| Joe Biden | 6% | 2¢ | 10¢ | $10.20 | 324 | |
| Anthony Fauci | 5% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $13.89 | 5.7K | |
| Jon Stewart | 4% | 2¢ | 7¢ | $13.89 | 358 | |
| Taylor Swift | 4% | ▼ 4 | 1¢ | 6¢ | $15.63 | 358 |
| Ghislaine Maxwell | 4% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | 37.3K | |
| Barack Obama | 3% | 2¢ | 5¢ | $20.83 | 1.5K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Sam Altman, Mark Zuckerberg, Shou Zi Chew
Search ›- Sam Altman Says It's 'Fucking Annoying' His RAM Comments Were Taken Out of ContextOpenAI CEO Sam Altman has hit back at criticism of his comments about computer memory, saying they were taken out of context and that he has long argued for the world to make more of it. "I actually do want the world to have tons of memory…
- Oil-rich UAE makes massive AI bet as Sam Altman unveils ambitious plan to transform energy industryFox news digital visits At the ADIPEC energy conference in Abu Dhabi, where OpenAI CEO Sam Altman joined UAE officials to unveil a major partnership aimed at transforming the energy industry. ABU DHABI, United Arab Emirates — At the…
- When Mark Zuckerberg’s Team Wore Meta Glasses to Social Media TrialMark Lanier was the lead attorney in the first social media addiction case to go to trial, against Meta and Google, which saw the plaintiff awarded $6 million in damages. Speaking at WIRED World Fair in Miami, Lanier recalls a moment…
- Sam Altman's Hardware Gaslighting: Why Local Inference Terrifies Cloud AI MonopoliesOpenAI CEO Sam Altman stirred up significant controversy across the developer and local AI community when he remarked: "Running inference on local hardware is a terrible allocation of scarce resources. Compute should be concentrated in…
- Mark Zuckerberg’s fortune tops $200 billion. His 3 daughters won’t inherit most of itWhen Mark Zuckerberg and Priscilla Chan pledged to give away 99% of their Facebook shares in 2015, the stake was worth about $45 billion. Zuckerberg’s fortune now exceeds $200 billion, and their three daughters still aren’t slated to…
- Andrew Garfield Doesn't Recall Waving At Sam Altman On 'Artificial' SetAs Andrew Garfield prepares to unleash his portrayal of Sam Altman in Artificial, the OpenAI CEO claimed he got a sneak peek of the performance. Following Altman’s account that he “waved” at Garfield when the Luca Guadagnino-helmed film…
- Andrew Garfield Says He ‘Never Had Any Interaction’ With Sam Altman While Filming ‘Artificial,’ Despite Altman Claiming They Waved to Each Other: ‘I Was Very Confused By That’Andrew Garfield might be playing OpenAI CEO Sam Altman in the forthcoming film “Artificial,” but the actor is maintaining that he’s never interacted with the tech billionaire — despite Altman’s claim that the two waved to one another while…
- Andrew Garfield Says Sam Altman Straight Up Lied About Meeting HimPublished Nov 6, 2026 12:49 PM EST Noted “sociopath” Sam Altman lied about running into actor Andrew Garfield — if Garfield himself is to be believed. In an interview with Vanity Fair last month, Altman was asked about Garfield’s portrayal…
- Sam Altman addresses RAM comments: people should ‘put as much as they want in their computers’OpenAI CEO Sam Altman spent election night defending his position on PC RAM purchases. He changed his name on X to "Ram Altman" in response to another user's comment, saying, "i actually do want the world to have tons of memory and people…
- Sam Altman becomes ‘Ram Altman’ and says his memory remark was misreadThe OpenAI chief said on X that he has long pushed for more memory production. A week earlier he called it “quite terrible” for DRAM to sit in people’s own computers. Sam Altman at OpenAI DevDay 2026 in San Francisco. Sam Altman says…
- Sam Altman Took On a New Identity, ‘Ram Altman,’ to Survive Internet TrollsAfter facing fierce backlash for calling it “terrible” that PC users have RAM, the OpenAI CEO attempted a massive 180 to save face. Sam Altman is doing damage control, and it’s in the form of a new alter ego. At the suggestion of an X…
- The dark side of Facebook and Mark ZuckerbergHaving once believed Facebook could change the world, the former leader of the corporation later revealed many controversial stories about Mark Zuckerberg and the company's work culture. Lying in her hospital bed, preparing to give birth…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions