Congressional Progressive Caucus size after the midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)

Kalshi Elections › House Closes Feb 1, 2027 · $1.1K traded · $1.1K at stake · prices read 2 h ago

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The odds

104.7median

93115

Median 104.7Middle half 100.2 – 109.8

How the odds have moved

Median: 100.1 on Oct 19, 104.7 now.

The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.

Every outcome

Outcome	Chance	Day	Bid	Ask	Pays	Contracts
Above 95	96%		93¢	98¢	$1.02	4.00
Above 97	88%	▼ 1	84¢	92¢	$1.09	610
Above 100	76%	▼ 1	72¢	80¢	$1.25	622
Above 105	49%	▼ 1	44¢	53¢	$1.89	204
Above 110	24%		21¢	27¢	$3.70	8.00

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: Congressional Progressive Caucus

Search ›

Progressives Put Trump’s Populist Promises to the Test in New PlanNewsweek · 3 days agoNov 06, 2026 at 05:38 PM EST Congressional progressives are laying out a strategy for Democrats to use their new House majority to test President Donald Trump on some of his own economic promises, including prescription drug costs and…
The 100-Day Blue Honeymoon Before the Messy Democratic DivorceNewsweek · 4 days agoNov 05, 2026 at 12:09 PM EST The Democrats had barely finished celebrating their sweeping midterm victory when one of their newly elected senators raised the possibility of replacing the man expected to lead their new Senate majority…
DSA’s shoddy midterm performance is proof voters want moderation, not socialismNew York Post · 3 days agoDemocrats just had a resounding midterm victory across the nation. But they’d be remiss to believe that the election results are an endorsement of the party’s creep to the far-left. Analysis of Tuesday’s results shows that progressive and…
Top Democrats call to rein in AI buildout after midterms sweep: 'National data center moratorium now'CNBC · 4 days agoAfter a big win in the U.S. midterm elections on Tuesday, some Democrats are already signaling they want to take on the artificial build-out, specifically data centers. In a post on X, Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt., touted referendums across…
Louisiana U.S. Senate election results 2026The Washington Post · 5 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Progressive House…
Idaho U.S. Senate election results 2026The Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Progressive House…
Democrats turn scrutiny to tech CEOs and Trump officialssemafor.com · 6 days agoBefore the dust settled Tuesday night, Democrats were already calling for both chambers to flex their new subpoena power. The overwhelming Democratic victory will usher in a new chapter of oversight on Capitol Hill â one that targets…
Connecticut governor election results 2026The Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Progressive House…
Pennsylvania 10th Congressional District election results 2026The Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Progressive House…
West Virginia election live results 2026The Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Progressive House…
South Carolina 1st Congressional District election results 2026The Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Progressive House…
South Dakota election live results 2026The Washington Post · 6 days agoBreaking news and analysis on politics, business, world, national news, entertainment and more. In-depth DC, Virginia, Maryland news coverage including traffic, weather, crime, education, restaurant reviews and more. Progressive House…

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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)

250.5median

207252

Median 250.5Middle half 249.7 – 251.2

Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.

About this market

VenueKalshi

Settles onCongressional Progressive Caucus

Trading closesFeb 1, 2027 9:59 AM ET

Traded$1.1K (1,448 contracts)

This week$1.1K

At stake$1.1K

Followed here sinceOct 19, 2026

The rules

If the total count of U.S. Congress members (including non-voting delegates) officially listed as members of the Congressional Progressive Caucus is above 95 on Feb 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

The full rules are on the market's page at Kalshi.

Reading the odds

A prediction market trades contracts that pay $1 if something happens. Its price is the market's chance: a contract at 62¢ means traders give it 62%. Each number here is the midpoint between the best bid and offer, or the last trade when they are more than ten cents apart.

For a question with many answers (who wins, which range a number lands in), the chances are scaled to add up to 100%. A price ladder ("above 4.25%, above 4.50% ...") gives a whole distribution: its median is where traders see an even chance either way.

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Prefer betting odds? Switch to American (+150) or decimal (2.50) odds at the top of the page.

Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions