How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Will the Clarity Act become law? (Before Jan 1, 2028)
The odds
22%Before Jan 1, 2028
- Before Dec 1, 20261%
- Before Jan 1, 20273%
- Before Apr 1, 202710%▼ 1
- Before Jul 1, 202714%▲ 3
- Before Oct 1, 202716%
- Before Jan 1, 202822%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 6% on Oct 20, 3% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.7M | |||
| Before Oct 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 1.4M | |||
| Before Nov 1, 2026 | 1% | $100.00 | 729.0K | |||
| Before Dec 1, 2026 | 1% | 1¢ | $100.00 | 521.6K | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3% | 2¢ | 3¢ | $34.48 | 2.5M | |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 10% | ▼ 1 | 9¢ | 11¢ | $9.09 | 109.3K |
| Before Jul 1, 2027 | 14% | ▲ 3 | 13¢ | 16¢ | $6.25 | 99.5K |
| Before Oct 1, 2027 | 16% | 14¢ | 18¢ | $5.56 | 170.3K | |
| Before Jan 1, 2028 | 22% | ▲ 1 | 21¢ | 22¢ | $4.55 | 145.1K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Clarity Act
Search ›- Kevin O'Leary Calls for Energy Security, CLARITY Act as US Faces Rising Power Demand and Crypto Competition: 'You Can't Have...'Investor Kevin O’Leary urged the next Congress to prioritize reliable energy supplies and cryptocurrency regulation, arguing that both are essential to America’s economic productivity and global competitiveness. O’Leary Calls For Stronger…
- Senate CLARITY Act Gridlock Continues Amid Trump Crypto ControversyThe CLARITY Act remains in legislative limbo after U.S. senators rejected a procedural motion to move forward with the cryptocurrency market structure legislation. The September 15 cloture vote concluded with a 49-50 tally, falling short…
- Lummis Says CLARITY Act Could Speed Crypto Holds After $6.3B Binance Breachwww.tokenpost.com Sen. Cynthia Lummis said the proposed CLARITY Act could help crypto firms share information with law enforcement and act faster on suspicious transfers after Binance put its breach impact at about $6.3 billion. “Every…
- XRP Price Prediction: XRP Eyes $3 Despite CLARITY Act Setback, Binance Hack, and Iran War, but Can AlphaPepe Deliver Bigger Gains?XRP faces a steep climb to reach the 3 mark amid global tensions The token trades near 1 25 https coinmarketcap com cmc ai xrp price analysis after a massive security breach at Binance shook confidence across crypto Simultaneously oil…
- Senator Lummis: CLARITY Act could aid crypto firms in hacks like $6B Binance incidentEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
- CLARITY Act Freeze Tools Could Have Limited $6.3B Binance Losses, Sen. Lummis SaysAllChained, live data on tokenized treasuries, funds and stablecoins. Who can buy tokenized funds? Wyoming Senator Cynthia Lummis says the stalled CLARITY Act would have given crypto exchanges immediate legal cover to freeze suspicious…
- Lummis argues Clarity Act would classify Binance as a covered personThe Wyoming senator says the stalled market structure bill would have handed regulators sharper tools against illicit finance, including at Binance Senator Cynthia Lummis wants critics to know what they voted down. On October 30, 2026, the…
- CLARITY Act back in the spotlight after $6.3B Binance hack — Here’s why!The $6.3 billion Binance hack, the largest crypto security incident on record, has sparked fresh debate over cryptocurrency regulations in the United States, particularly the need for stronger safeguards for crypto exchanges. According to…
- Crypto Currents: Trump says Senate should pass Clarity ActAs bitcoin, ethereum and other cryptocurrencies see major legal, institutional, and technological developments, the financial landscape continues to adapt. Stay up on the crypto news that matters with the “Crypto Currents” weekly from The…
- Lummis Addresses Binance Classification Under Clarity ActMikaeel Goharshadi is a crypto writer with over a year of experience covering the fast-moving world of blockchain and digital assets. I specialize in writing both technical articles, explaining protocols, tokenomics, and DeFi mechanisms…
- Clarity Act could classify Binance as “covered person,” says LummisEstefano Gomez is an editor at Crypto Briefing specializing in blockchain analysis, DeFi, and the intersection of crypto and digital art. He previously served as Editor in Chief at Interesante for over three years, where he covered…
- Claiming Age Clarity Act: Sometimes Good Bipartisan Bills Do Pass Congress!Just before leaving town in late September, the U.S. Senate passed the Claiming Age Clarity Act by unanimous consent. This quiet and unopposed vote was initiated by Majority Leader John Thune (R-SD) at the tail end of the legislative day…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 3 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions