How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Will a Democratic Senator call for Schumer to step down as leader? (Before Jan 1, 2027)
The odds
48%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202748%▲ 1
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 49% on Oct 20, 48% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 7, 11 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 64% → 51%
- Nov 3, 9 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 46% → 52%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Sep 1, 2026 | 4% | $25.00 | 1.1K | |||
| Before Nov 3, 2026 | 5% | ▼ 2 | $20.00 | 25.3K | ||
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 48% | ▲ 1 | 47¢ | 48¢ | $2.08 | 35.6K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Democratic Senator, Schumer
Search ›- Some incoming Democratic senators say they won't support Schumer for Majority LeaderCBS News - The 5:33 | Legacy of the LIRR Massacre - On The Dot with David Schechter: Wildfires & Climate Change Some incoming Democratic senators say they won't support Schumer for Majority Leader Sen. Chris Murphy released from hospital…
- Incoming Democratic senators don’t want Chuck Schumer as majority leaderNew lawmakers from Annie Andrews and Adam Hamilton to Abdul El-Sayed indicate they will not support him Incoming Democratic senators want someone other than Chuck Schumer to become the next majority leader in the US Senate, although…
- Democratic senator-elect calls Trump 'unserious fool' while defending combative political styleMichigan Sen.-elect Abdul El-Sayed mocked Vice President JD Vance and President Donald Trump in his victory speech. Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic senator-elect from Michigan, leaned into accusations of acting cocky on the path to victory…
- How voter shifts in Texas helped elect a Democratic senator and governorHistory was made in Texas on Tuesday with two stunning victories for the Democrats. For the first time in history, Texas elected its first Latina governor, and the first Democrat governor since 1995. It also elected its first Democratic…
- Fact Check: Did Elon Musk recently follow Democratic Senator-elect James Talarico on X?WASHINGTON, DC: A viral post on X has sparked speculation about billionaire Elon Musk's political position after claiming that he recently followed Democratic Senator-elect James Talarico on the platform. The claim has drawn attention…
- Long-Serving Democratic Senator Passes AwayFormer U.S. Sen. Jay Rockefeller, an heir to one of America’s most famous family fortunes who built a decades-long political career in West Virginia, has died at 89. Rockefeller’s family announced his death Thursday, saying the former…
- Democratic Senator El-Sayed JD Vance: It's too late, buddyEADaily It's too late, my friend, I should have thought earlier This was stated by Democratic Senator Abdul El-Sayed in an interview with CNN, addressing US Vice President Jay Dee Vance The politician noted that J.D Vance is now struggling…
- New democratic senators challenge Schumer’s leadership after midterm winsSeveral newly elected Democratic senators, including Michigan’s Abdul El-Sayed and South Carolina’s Annie Andrews, have declined to back Chuck Schumer for Senate majority leader, pushing alternatives like Maryland’s Chris Van Hollen, with…
- Is Mississippi Really About to Elect a Democratic Senator?Of all the spectacular Democratic upsets in 2026 midterm elections — a statewide sweep in Texas, the first senator elected by the state of Kansas in almost a century, an underdog stunner in South Carolina — the most shocking victory of all…
- Democratic Senator Sends Warning to FCC Chairman CarrSen. Blumenthal says chairman must release records by Nov. 30 pertaining to investigations into First Amendment violations Just days after Democrats swept the midterm elections, Congress is ramping up its investigations of the FCC. On…
- Democratic senator demands tech firms, FCC chair turn over documentsCentral Oregon Daily WASHINGTON, Nov 5 (Reuters) - The top Democrat on the a Senate investigative panel on Thursday demanded the head of the Federal Communications Commission and tech companies that donated to President Donald Trump's…
- South Carolina elects Democratic senator for first time in almost three decadesRepublican South Carolina Senate candidate Darline Graham is projected to have lost her race, handing Democrats their first victory in the state for 28 years. Democrat Annie Andrews, a former paediatrician, was on course to pull off a…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions