NC-03 House winner?
85%Raymond Smith Jr.
- Raymond Smith Jr.85%▲ 1
- Greg Murphy15%
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Directional) (Feb 1, 2027)
The odds
97%Above 256
208259
How the odds have moved
Above 211: 98% on Oct 20, 100% now.
The median the market implied over time and its middle half (the band), read from every strike's prices on Kalshi.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Above 211 | 100% | 99¢ | 1.7K | |||
| Above 214 | 100% | 99¢ | 5.1K | |||
| Above 217 | 99% | 98¢ | 6.2K | |||
| Above 220 | 99% | 99¢ | 22.4K | |||
| Above 223 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 9.6K | ||
| Above 226 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 4.2K | ||
| Above 229 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 10.4K | ||
| Above 232 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 7.1K | |
| Above 235 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 9.5K | ||
| Above 238 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 5.6K | ||
| Above 241 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 9.5K | ||
| Above 244 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 17.2K | ||
| Above 247 | 99% | 98¢ | $1.01 | 5.3K | ||
| Above 250 | 99% | 98¢ | 99¢ | $1.01 | 22.9K | |
| Above 253 | 98% | 97¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 7.2K | |
| Above 256 | 97% | ▲ 1 | 96¢ | 98¢ | $1.02 | 11.7K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: House, Midterms, Directional
Search ›- Midterm Elections Live Updates: Democrats Clear 250 House Seats in Decisive Power ShiftThe party’s growing tally approached the result in 2008, when Barack Obama captured the White House. Democrats also held leads in the uncalled Senate races in Mississippi and Alaska. The Democratic House majority surged past 250 seats on…
- Democrats win majority of Senate and House after midterm electionsCBS News Los Angeles is a local news organization that is part of CBS News and Stations. Also referred to as KCAL-TV and channel 9, CBS News Los Angeles offers local breaking news, weather coverage and investigative reporting. Democrats…
- Midterms spark calls for White House shakeupsSenior Republican lawmakers and strategists have reportedly pressed the Trump administration to fire the Pentagon chief and swiftly end the Iran war. Midterms spark calls for White House shakeups The White House faced calls for policy and…
- US midterm elections 2026 live: Democrats exceed 250 House seats as blue wave sweeping Congress growsDemocrats widen gap in House chamber by flipping more seats, including in Ohio, Arizona and North Carolina; Ted Cruz calls election a ‘Watergate-level repudiation’ Live results | Q&A: Ask your questions about Democrats’ win Welcome to our…
- Democrats take House and Senate in historic midterm winNBC News projects Democrats have won control of the House and Senate in the midterms. NBC News’ Ryan Nobles looks at some of the historic wins in states like Texas and Michigan along with Republican reaction. 6-year-old boy found after…
- Four midterms takeaways for 2028 White House raceBallots are still being counted in the US midterm elections but the political landscape is already pivoting to the 2028 White House race. Buoyed by major gains in Congress, Democrats will have momentum as they prepare for the contest to…
- These House and Senate midterm races don't have winners yetNovember 6, 2026 / 9:18 AM EST / CBS News The makeup of Congress shifted dramatically in the 2026 midterm elections, as Democrats decisively won control of the Senate and picked up dozens of House seats — in what's on track to be one of…
- Reporter's Notebook: How midterms may change the House impeachment equation for HegsethFox News chief congressional correspondent Chad Pergram reports on post-midterm calls from several Democrats to investigate President Donald Trump and his administration on ‘Hannity.’ Rep. Thomas Massie, R-Ky., plans to reintroduce…
- Michigan Democrats flip three U.S. House seats in 2026 midterm, hold majority in the stateNovember 4, 2026 / 5:58 PM EST / CBS Detroit With Democrats holding the majority in the U.S. House and Senate after the 2026 midterm election, the same occurred in Michigan, where Democrats flipped three House seats, giving them the…
- Democrats make major gains in House, Senate in major midterm election sweepFox News Democrats make major gains in House, Senate in major midterm election sweep Fox News senior congressional correspondent Chad Pergram breaks down the latest midterm election results, indicating major Democratic Party gains in both…
- House intelligence and national security hawks suffer major losses in midterm electionsWashington Examiner The House Republican conference is set to see a major brain drain of intelligence and defense hawks following the staggering defeat in the 2026 midterm elections. The House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence is…
- Democrats win control of the House and Senate in a midterm “blue wave,” CBS News projectsDemocrats flipped Senate seats in North Carolina, Ohio, Kansas, Maine, South Carolina and Texas, per CBS News. Mississippi and Alaska were still too close to call, and Democrats had 252 House seats so far against the 218 needed. Democrats…
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How many House seats will Democrats hold after the Midterms? (Feb 1, 2027)
250.5median
207252
Median 250.5Middle half 249.7 – 251.2
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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions