How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Will the Department of Defense be renamed the Department of War by law? (Before Apr 1, 2027)
The odds
7%Before Apr 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 20277%▼ 3
- Before Apr 1, 20277%▼ 6
How the odds have moved
Before Jan 1, 2027: 27% on Oct 20, 7% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Why it moved
- Nov 5, 9 PM ETBefore Jan 1, 2027: 20% → 14%
The biggest swings over the chart's period, each with the headlines about the market's subject published in the hours before it. News and odds moving together is not proof one caused the other.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before Jan 1, 2027 | 7% | ▼ 3 | 6¢ | 8¢ | $12.50 | 39.3K |
| Before Apr 1, 2027 | 7% | ▼ 6 | 3¢ | 9¢ | $11.11 | 2.3K |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Department of Defense, Department of War
Search ›- VA, Department of War Join HHS-Led TEFCA Health Information NetworkSeal: Department of Health and Human Services The Department of Veterans Affairs and Department of War are now part of a nationwide health information exchange network to facilitate access to electronic medical records across military…
- VA, Department of War Join Nationwide Health Information Exchange NetworkThe U.S. Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) and Department of War have joined the Trusted Exchange Framework and Common Agreement (TEFCA), expanding the federal agencies participating in the nationwide health information exchange network…
- Department Of War’s Absurd Answer To Blue Tsunami: A Podcast About How Much Top Iran War Brass Loves French FriesThe Department of War is rolling out a podcast about Admiral Bradley Cooper’s abiding love for French fries. The American Empire is in a crisis. The Iran War is an ongoing disaster. The Republican Party is on life support. And the…
- Emergent BioSolutions Receives $22.3 Million Delivery Order Modification to Supply BioThrax® (Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed) to the U.S. Department of WarBioSpace Emergent BioSolutions Receives $22.3 Million Delivery Order Modification to Supply BioThrax® (Anthrax Vaccine Adsorbed) to the U.S. Department of War GAITHERSBURG, Md.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--$EBS--Emergent BioSolutions Inc. (NYSE: EBS)…
- Appian Defense Cloud Achieves IL5 Authorization Across Department of War OperationsProcess orchestration leader earns highest unclassified level of authorization to deliver secure, intelligent automation for mission-critical warfare operationsMCLEAN, Va., Oct. 29, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- Appian today announced that the…
- Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital Signs $75 Million Conditional Loan Commitm U.S. Department of War (.gov) The Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) announced today a $75 million conditional loan commitment with Halo Industries, Inc., to scale production of its innovative…
- Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital Signs $250 Million ConThe Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) announced today a $250 million conditional loan commitment with 6K, Inc., to scale the company's domestic production of Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt (NMC) cathode active material (CAM)…
- USAISEC year in review: Strengthening installation resilience across the Department of WarArmy.mil USAISEC year in review: Strengthening installation resilience across the Department of War By Sandra Rosario, USAISECNovember 4, 2026 FORT HUACHUCA, Ariz. — Throughout 2026, the U.S. Army Information Systems Engineering Command…
- Reports suggest Trump is considering nominating Ron DeSantis to succeed Hegseth at the Department of DefenseCairo, Egypt – Egyptian press reports have revealed a move within the Egyptian Football Association to terminate the contract of… Gadi Eizenkot and the Challenges of Forming an Israeli Government JD Vance and the Shifts in Leadership…
- Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital Signs $150 Million Conditional Loan Commitment With LeoLabs, Inc. U.S. Department of War (.gov) The Department of War's Office of Strategic Capital (OSC) announced today a $150 million conditional loan commitment with LeoLabs, Inc., a leading provider of Space…
- If The US Department Of Defense Gets Solar Power, Why Can’t We?In the topsy-turvy world of today’s federal energy policy, solar power is a bad thing. Various members of the President’s cabinet have advised that solar is “unreliable,” and that solar power plants routinely experience “catastrophic…
- Accountability Will Come – What Should It Look Like for the Department of Defense?How, then, should a new leadership team plan to proceed upon taking office? Here are nine steps – based on the assumption that whoever takes office will appreciate the seriousness of the damage that has been done, the risks of recurrence…
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Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues 4 min ago. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions