How many nominations will Trump send to the Senate this week? (11/8-11/14)
26.4median
-850
Median 26.4Middle half 23.2 – 29.6
Install
Will the House pass the Epstein Files Transparency Act II? (Before Jan 3, 2027)
The odds
75%chance▼ 1
How the odds have moved
Yes: 58% on Nov 6, 75% now.
Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.
Every outcome
| Outcome | Chance | Day | Bid | Ask | Pays | Contracts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yes | 75% | ▼ 1 | 71¢ | 79¢ | $1.27 | 587 |
"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".
The news: Epstein Files Transparency Act II, House
Search ›- Massie says there will be enough signatures for the Epstein Files Transparency Act IIKRCR Massie says there will be enough signatures for the Epstein Files Transparency Act II
- Thomas Massie Claims He Has Enough Support to Force Congressional Vote on Second Jeffrey Epstein Files Transparency ActThomas Massie promises to get enough sigantures for the Epstein Files Transparency Act II vote. Nov. 6 2026, Published 2:15 p.m. ET Outgoing Kentucky Republican Rep. Thomas Massie is predicting a Capitol Hill showdown when lawmakers return…
- White House Is “Monitoring” Conservative Groups Amid Break With TrumpAfter a disastrous midterm showing that placed the future of the MAGA movement in abject peril, the White House decided it was a good time to let conservative groups know that they were being watched. “‘We’re watching you’ is not the…
- Congress Could Force Release of Massive 2 Million Page Epstein Trove, Congressman Says [WATCH]Congress could move to force the release of more than 2 million pages tied to the Jeffrey Epstein investigation, according to Rep. Raja Krishnamoorthi, an Illinois Democrat. With Democrats again controlling the Senate and House, the…
- Thomas Massie to force vote on new Epstein files bill when the US House returns after midterms: ‘We’ll get 218 signatures’Incumbent House Representative Thomas Massie, a Republican from Kentucky who lost his seat in the midterms, says he is ready to push for a new Epstein bill once Congress returns after the election. Massie, the sponsor of the original…
- Epstein fight surges back as House flipsCongress is heading back into session with a familiar fight waiting on the docket, a renewed push to pry loose more Jeffrey Epstein records and a fresh promise from Democrats to keep the pressure on after their midterm gains. The issue has…
- American Taxpayers on the Hook for Ivanka Trump’s Birthday TripIvanka Trump, the president’s daughter, got to take a nice birthday trip to Marrakesh, Morocco, with taxpayers helping to foot the bill. The Daily Mail reports that Trump was spotted walking through the streets of the city on October 29…
- Rep. Garcia Names His 4 Targets: “We’re Going to Take on the Trump Crime Family”Rep. Robert Garcia, Gage Skidmore, CC BY-SA 3.0, via Wikimedia Commons Rep. Robert Garcia (D-CA), who will become the new chair of the House Oversight Committee in January, announced at a news conference on Wednesday, “We’re going to take…
- Epstein files back in spotlight after midtermsCongress returns next week facing a renewed push for transparency over the Jeffrey Epstein files, as a top House Democrat promises new investigations following the party’s midterm victories. Why it matters: The Epstein files controversy…
- Massie Says He Has Enough Signatures to Force Vote on Epstein FilesRepublican Representative Thomas Massie says he has enough support to force a vote on his second Epstein Transparency Act. “When we return next week, we’ll get 218 signatures for Epstein Files Transparency Act II, which guarantees a vote,”…
- Trump Admits He Ignored Court Order to Begin Building His ArchThe Trump administration admitted Thursday that it has done work on the president’s planned 250-foot arch in Washington, D.C., in defiance of a court order. Meanwhile, the National Capital Planning Commission is expected to vote to approve…
- John Seiler: War and corruption drove Republican election wipeoutFollowing advice in neuroscientist Andrew Huberman’s new book, “Protocols: An Operating Manual for the Human Body,” on Election Day I went for a walk at sunrise, 6:13, and glanced near (not at) the sun. I walked over to the Shell station…
Related markets
All congress ›Will the House vote on impeaching Pete Hegseth? (Before 2027)
91%Before Nov 14, 2026
- Before Nov 14, 202691%▲ 10
- Before Nov 21, 202692%▲ 1
- Before Jan 1, 202793%▼ 1
2026 Midterms: House popular vote margin of victory? (Generic ballot)
14.85%median
-100%100%
Median 14.85%Middle half 14.26% – 15.43%
How many Senate seats will Democrats win in the Midterms?
95%At least 22
2023
Will a cabinet member be impeached? (Before Jan 20, 2029)
79%Before Jan 1, 2027
- Before Jan 1, 202779%▲ 8
- Before Apr 1, 202793%▲ 13
- Before Jul 1, 202794%▲ 11
3 more
- Before Oct 1, 202794%▲ 5
- Before Jan 1, 202894%▲ 6
- Before Jan 20, 202994%▲ 2
Government shutdown on Dec 12, 2026?
38%chance▼ 1
Odds are traders' prices on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, not forecasts by 4Progressives. Prices read from the venues just now. Prices may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts. Not betting or investment advice.
Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions