Will the FDA approve any psychedelic substance for medical use before 2028?

Kalshi Health › FDA & drugs Closes Dec 31, 2027 · $329 traded · $259 at stake · prices read 4 min ago

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The odds

78%chance

How the odds have moved

Yes: 70% on Oct 21, 78% now.

Each outcome's chance over time on Kalshi. The dots along the bottom are headlines about its subject: point at one to read it.

Every outcome

Outcome Chance Day Bid Ask Pays Contracts
Yes 78% 74¢ 82¢ $1.22 421

"Pays" is what a $1 stake returns if that outcome happens, at the price shown (before any fees). Bid and ask are the best prices to sell and buy "Yes".

The news: FDA

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  • FDA grants tentative approval to low-cost HIV shotsemafor.com · 5 days agoThe potential rollout of a more affordable injection to help prevent HIV infection lifts hopes for reduced AIDS deaths in Africa. US regulators’ approval of a cheaper HIV shot has lifted hopes in some of the world’s poorest countries…
  • FDA probes tumour risk tied to Novartis gene therapyTradingView · 3 days agoTradingView FDA probes tumour risk tied to Novartis gene therapy
  • FDA Upgrades Recall of Gelatelli-Brand GelatoNTD · 3 days agoThe lot of Gelatelli coffee and vanilla gelato that was withdrawn from the market last month was flagged by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) as a Class I recall event this week. Concerns about the potential for Listeria…
  • Novartis Gene Therapy Under FDA Scrutinyiotwreport.com · 2 days agoReuters The US Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it was investigating a risk... The US Food and Drug Administration said on Friday it was investigating a risk of neoplasia, or tumour formation including malignancy, ​associated…
  • Hutchmed China's sovleplenib designated orphan drug by FDAMarketScreener · 3 days agoHutchmed China Ltd - Hong Kong-based biopharmaceutical company - Says its autoimmune hemolytic anemia medication sovleplenib was granted orphan drug designation by the US Food & Drug Administration.... Hutchmed China Ltd - Hong Kong-based…
  • FDA Investigates Cancer Risk Associated With Novartis' Zolgensma Gene TherapyRTTNews · 3 days agoIn medicine, one truth transcends time: a drug's worth is measured not merely by how effectively it fights disease, but also by how safely it does so. One medicine that has recently drawn the FDA's attention over emerging safety concerns…
  • FDA Approves Amivantamab for Recurrent or Metastatic HNSCC@OncNursingNews · 3 days agoFDA grants accelerated approval to amivantamab and hyaluronidase-lpuj for recurrent or metastatic head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The approval was based on cohort 1 of the open-label, multicenter phase 1b/2 OrigAMI-4 trial, which…
  • FDA Recall Update: FebruaryPowder Bulk Solids · 4 days agoThere were 14 recalls in the food & beverage, pet food, and drugs sectors, a 25% decrease compared with last month. The US Food & Drug Administration (FDA) recalled 14 food and beverage, pet food, and drugs products, and updated a previous…
  • Maharashtra FDA Declares Wellness Capsules Spurious After Detecting Undisclosed Erectile Dysfunction DrugFree Press Journal · 2 days agoMumbai, November 7, 2026: A capsule marketed as Urja Urbpro has been declared spurious after laboratory tests detected tadalafil, a prescription drug commonly used to treat erectile dysfunction, in the product without it being declared as…
  • FlowStop Hemostatic Spray Hits 18,000 Units, Seeks FDA ClearanceBioSpace · 3 days agoSouth Korean maker INNOPHARMA designs the no-compression liquid spray for bystanders, firefighters and soldiers who reach injuries before medical care DAEGU, South Korea, Nov. 6, 2026 /PRNewswire/ -- A liquid spray lets people without…
  • Pharma critic Bernie Sanders is set to hold major sway over FDA funding billSTAT · 5 days agoSTAT WASHINGTON – Democrats’ landslide victory in the midterm elections may have significant implications for the upcoming negotiations over a key funding source for the Food and Drug Administration in part by empowering a major critic of…
  • FDA Puts Smoked Salmon Recall in Highest Risk Category Over ListeriaNTD · 3 days agoA recall of cold-smoked salmon has received the Food and Drug Administration’s highest risk rating after the product was found to be contaminated with bacteria that can cause serious illness or death. Under the FDA's recall definitions…

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Prediction-market prices are what traders pay for each outcome on Kalshi, Polymarket, ForecastEx and Crypto.com, read as the market's implied chance. They are not forecasts by 4Progressives, can move fast and can be wrong; they are read every few minutes and may be delayed. Money traded on Kalshi and ForecastEx is estimated from contracts at their price. News comes from the 4Progressives index; prices of stocks, rates and coins from 4Progressives Finance. Nothing here is betting, financial or investment advice. Terms of use. How to use Predictions